New Zealand vs France 1st Test Predictions - Understrength France to challenge All Blacks

Ralph Staniforth

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Last updated: 02 Jul 2025

Ralph Staniforth 02 Jul 2025

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New Zealand expected to win, but margin under 19.5 points.
France fielding a young squad; recent form is strong with only one loss.
Previous match ended with France winning 30-29 in Paris.

Expired

France have won their last 3 matches against New Zealand. (Getty Images)

New Zealand vs France Predictions

This could have been a cracking series but given the squad the French have sent out, New Zealand should be too good. France, however, do have a lot of depth and I believe they will be competitive in the first test, so I’m backing the hosts to win by less than 19.5 points.

New Zealand vs France Predictions
Head to Head
New Zealand Form
New Zealand Injuries & Team News
France Form
France Injuries & Team News

New Zealand have won 6 of their last 7 matches.
France have won their last 3 matches against New Zealand.
France have selected a severely weakened squad for this series.

Head to Head

Historically New Zealand have dominated this fixture, however, France have won the last three matches. They met in November last year in Paris, a match France won 30-29.

New Zealand Form

New Zealand did not have their best year in 2024 but did show vast improvement under new coach Scott Robertson as they year came towards an end. After narrowly beating England in July last year, the All Blacks lost to Argentina and twice to South Africa in the Rugby Championship.

While it seemed like a bit of crisis mode for the famous black jerseys, Robertson and the team found their form later in the year. After thrashing Japan in October, the All Blacks began their Northern Hemisphere tour wit a 24-22 win over England followed by a very impressive 2313 success in Dublin against Ireland.

A narrow 30-29 loss to France in Paris followed. It was a cracking contest which could easily have gone New Zealand’s way. In their final game, the All Blacks beat Italy 29-11 in Rome.

New Zealand Injuries & Team News

Scott Robertson comes into this season with a better understanding of what he needs and wants. Expect more concise selections for the All Black coach this season as he looks to build towards the Rugby World Cup in 2027.

France Form

France are on a good run of form despite last playing during the 2025 Six Nations. Since November last year, the French have won seven of their eight matches.

During that run, the only French defeat came during the Six Nations against England, losing 26-25. However, France only have themselves to blame for that defeat after throwing away numerous scoring opportunities.

France closed the Six Nations campaign out with a big win over Italy, victory in Dublin against Ireland and a convincing home victory over Scotland.

France Injuries & Team News

France have been criticised heavily for selecting what seems to be a development squad for this tour, something the French do every July. Half the players have yet to get an international cap while the average age of the side is just 25.

Verdict

New Zealand v France

I do expect New Zealand to be too good, but the 19.5 handicap seems a bit too big give the depth France have. I am backing the visitors in the handicap market.

France +19.5

Handicap

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