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Bay of Plenty vs Tasman Predictions - Tasman to challenge in NPC quarterfinal

ralph-staniforth
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Last updated: 09 Oct 2025

The Bay of Plenty vs Tasman game promises to be a thrilling encounter. Bay of Plenty is the favorite, having shown strong recent form with five wins in their last six matches. They previously beat Tasman by 30 points this season. However, Tasman, despite recent setbacks, has shown tenacity by keeping their losses close, within an 8-point margin in their last games. While Bay of Plenty's form gives them an edge, betting on Tasman to stay within the 7.5-point handicap could be a strategic bet.

Ralph Staniforth 09 Oct 2025
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  • Bay of Plenty are favorites, winning 5 of last 6 games.
  • Tasman has lost 4 of last 5 games, but within 8 points.
  • Tasman could cover the 7.5-point handicap vs Bay.
Tasman NPC rugby
Tasman can challenge Bay of Plenty (Getty Images)

Bay of Plenty vs Tasman Predictions


Bay of Plenty are certainly in better form than the visitors, so go into the game as favourites with the handicap at 7.5 points. However, despite losing four of their last five games, all those defeats have been by eight points or less. My best bet is for Tasman to get within the handicap.
  • Bay of Plenty vs Tasman Predictions
  • Head to Head
  • Bay of Plenty Form
  • Tasman Form

  • Bay of Plenty have won 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Bay of Plenty beat Tasman by 30 points earlier this season.
  • Tasman have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Tasman have lost 4 of their last 5 matches by 8 points or less.

Head to Head


The last four matches are level at 2-2 with the home side winning on each occasion. The last time an away team won this fixture was in 2021 when Tasman won. In round 1 of the NPC 2025, Bay of Plenty thrashed Tasman 37-7 at home.

Bay of Plenty Form


Bay of Plenty finished third on the NPC table with seven wins and three defeats in 10 matches. Their 36 points was five points short of a top two finish; however, they did have the second-best points difference, only Canterbury did better.

Through mid-August, Bay of Plenty lost two successive games but have bounced back to win five of their last six. Their only defeat in that run came at home to Hawkes Bay (24-21). Since that loss, the Bay have beaten Manawatu 55-19, Waikato 41-5 and Wellington 33-26 last weekend.

Bay of Plenty played Tasman in round one of the NPC 2025, thrashing them 37-7 on home soil.

Tasman Form


Tasman will be very disappointed with their 2025 season to date, but they can still rectify it. Going into this year’s NPC, Tasman were odds on to win the tournament, however, inconsistency has cost them dearly.

Over their 10 matches this season, Tasman have won five and lost five. Their current form is atrocious as well, having lost four of their last five matches. They also lost in the opening round but then won four in a row before this poor run at the end.

Tasman lost to Auckland by eight points, Canterbury by six points, Waikato by five points before beating Southland 55-38 two weeks ago. Last week, Tasman lost at home again, going down 49-41 to Counties Manukau.

Verdict

Tasman are backed to get within the 7.5 handicap against Bay of Plenty.

Best Bet1: Tasman +7.5 Handicap $1.91 at TicTacBets - 4 Units
Best Bet2: Tasman Win Result $3.10 at Easybet - 1 Unit
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