Canterbury vs Otago Predictions - Canterbury set for NPC title

Ralph Staniforth

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Last updated: 2 hours ago

Ralph Staniforth 2 hours ago

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Canterbury favorites with a 4.5 handicap despite previous defeat to Otago.
Otago's surprise performance makes them a formidable opponent.
Both teams reported minimal changes, setting the stage for a thrilling final.

Otago beat Canterbury by 2 points earlier this season. (Getty Images)

Canterbury vs Otago Predictions

This is a very tough one to call with Canterbury slight favourites with a 4.5 handicap. Otago have, however, already beaten Canterbury away from home this season, which makes this very difficult.

Canterbury vs Otago Predictions
Head to Head
Canterbury Form
Canterbury Injuries & Team News
Otago Form
Otago Injuries & Team News

I am leaning towards the hosts in the final solely because they have a slightly more experienced side for this type of fixture.

Canterbury are unbeaten in 11 of their last 12 matches.
Canterbury have won 10 of their last 12 matches.
Otago have won 10 of their last 12 matches.
Otago beat Canterbury by 2 points earlier this season.

Head to Head

Otago beat Canterbury 38-36 away from home earlier this season.

Canterbury Form

Canterbury topped the NPC table this season with eight wins in 10 matches. They lost once and drew once, finishing two points clear of Otago. However, their only defeat this season did come at home against Otago.

The season started very well for Canterbury, and they have been strong throughout, but their form over the last month has dropped a touch. In their quarterfinal at home to Counties Manukau, Canterbury were not very convincing in a 23-15 win.

However, in the semi-final last weekend, Canterbury found their rhythm again against Hawkes Bay, comfortably winning the match 43-19.

Canterbury Injuries & Team News

Canterbury have chopped and changed a bit to keep their players fresh throughout the season. Expect them to pick their strongest side for this final.

Otago Form

Otago won eight of their 10 round robin matches, losing just twice. They have certainly been the surprise package this season with not many backing them to even make the top eight when the NPC got underway.

However, in terms of rugby quality, Otago have been the standout team in 2025. They also beat Canterbury away from home a month ago, which should give them plenty of confidence.

In the quarterfinal, Otago were quite fortunate to come away with a 44-41 victory over Waikato at home. Defensively they let slip far too many points, but fortunately their attack fired on the same night. In the semi-final last weekend, Otago were back to their best, beating Bay of Plenty 41-17 at home.

Otago Injuries & Team News

I do not foresee too many unforced changes for Otago here. They have been quite consistent throughout 2025 with selection.

Verdict

Canterbury v Otago

Canterbury are backed to cover the -4.5 handicap and claim the NPC title for 2025.

Canterbury -4.5

Handicap

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