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Otago vs Bay of Plenty Predictions - Otago backed to reach NPC final

Simon Lewis
Editor
Last updated: 14 Oct 2025

The NPC semi-final clash between Otago and Bay of Plenty is a highly anticipated match. Otago boasts an impressive season, winning 9 of their last 11 games, and securing second place in the standings. Meanwhile, Bay of Plenty remains undefeated in away games, though their home record shows vulnerability. The match, viewed as a tight contest by bookies, has Otago slightly favored to win at home. Historical encounters see Bay of Plenty with a slight edge, having won three out of the last four games against Otago. Expect a nail-biting showdown.

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Simon Lewis 14 Oct 2025
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  • Otago won 9 of their last 11 matches; favorites with a 1.5 handicap.
  • Bay of Plenty unbeaten away, won last 4 matches; beat Otago 3 of 4 times.
  • Predicted closely contested match; slight edge to Otago at home.
Otago vs Bay of Plenty
Otago won their last match against Bay of Plenty. (Getty Images)

Otago vs Bay of Plenty Predictions


This is an incredibly tough semi-final to call. Otago have been brilliant all season while Bay of Plenty are unbeaten away from home, in is their home form that has been average. The bookies have the visitors as very slight favourites with a 1.5 handicap.
  • Otago vs Bay of Plenty Predictions
  • Head to Head
  • Otago Form
  • Otago Team News
  • Bay of Plenty Form
  • Bay of Plenty Team News

Given Otago’s form this season, I am going to back them to get the victory on home soil, but it will be closer regardless of which way it goes.

  • Otago have won 9 of their last 11 NPC matches.
  • Otago won their last match against Bay of Plenty.
  • Bay of Plenty have won their last 4 matches.
  • Bay of Plenty have won their last 5 away matches.
  • Bay of Plenty have won 3 of their last 4 matches against Otago.

Head to Head


Otago and Bay of Plenty did not play against each other this year. They last met in 2024, a match Otago won 31-26 at home. Bay of Plenty won three encounters prior to that.

Otago Form


Otago finished second on the NPC table after 10 matches, winning eight and losing two. They were just one point off Canterbury at the top.

After losing to Tasman at the end of August, Otago won their last three round robin games. Those victories came against Canterbury and Auckland away from home and a home win over North Harbour.

Last weekend, in their quarterfinal encounter against Waikato, it was a nervy affair, but Otago eventually came out on top with a 44-41 win. While victory was all that was required, Otago were not at their best and almost blew it at home.

Otago Team News


Teams will be announced later this week, but I do expect Otago to make a couple of changes to their quarterfinal side.

Bay of Plenty Form


Bay of Plenty won seven of their 10 round robin matches, ending in third place, five points behind Otago. What is strange about the Bay of Plenty season is that all three of their defeats came at home while they won all five away games.

The last defeat suffered by Bay of Plenty was at home to Hawkes Bay on 13 September. They won their subsequent three fixtures against Manawatu, Waikato and Wellington.

In the quarterfinal last Saturday at home to Tasman, Bay of Plenty were dominant, winning 27-7.

Bay of Plenty Team News


Bay of Plenty is likely to stick with a very similar side to last weekend, barring any late injury concerns.

Verdict

I am backing Otago to win and reach the NPC final.

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