2025 Rugby Championship Round 5 Predictions & Tips

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New Zealand vs Australia Predictions - New Zealand backed for comfortable Rugby Championship win

Ralph Staniforth

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Last updated: 25 Sep 2025

Ralph Staniforth 25 Sep 2025

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New Zealand have won 11 of last 12 matches vs Australia.
All Blacks unbeaten in 51 Eden Park games, 20 vs Australia.
Australia miss key players through injury, weakening their chances.
New Zealand expected to cover -14 handicap and win convincingly.
Will Jordan tipped to score multiple tries.

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New Zealand vs Australia Rugby Championship

New Zealand have won their last 20 matches against Australia at Eden Park. (Getty Images)

New Zealand vs Australia Predictions

New Zealand just don’t seem to lose at Eden Park and despite Australia’s improvement, key injuries could cost them. I am backing the All Blacks to cover the -14 handicap on Saturday.

New Zealand vs Australia Predictions
Head to Head
New Zealand Form
New Zealand Team News
Australia Form
Australia Team News

New Zealand have won 11 of their last 12 matches against Australia.
New Zealand have won their last 51 matches at Eden Park.
New Zealand have won their last 20 matches against Australia at Eden Park.
New Zealand lost their last home match.
Australia lost their last match.
Australia are missing key players to injury.

Head to Head

New Zealand have won 11 of their last 12 matches against Australia. The Wallabies only win in this period game in November 2020 when they won 24-22.

Over the last three games, New Zealand have twice won by three points, but their last encounter in Wellington last season saw the All Blacks win 33-13.

New Zealand have won their last 51 matches at Eden Park, 20 of those wins have come against Australia.

New Zealand Form

New Zealand come into the fifth and penultimate round of the Rugby Championship in third place, level on 10 points with South Africa and one point behind Australia. That is not all that’s to play for this weekend with this also being the first Bledisloe Cup test and the Eden Park record on the line again.

The All Blacks defended their then 50-match unbeaten run at Eden Park three weeks ago against South Africa and will have to produce another performance to make it 52 this weekend. However, a week after beating the Springboks at Eden Park, New Zealand were thrashed 43-10 in Wellington by South Africa.

The inconsistency within this New Zealand side has been prevalent throughout the tenure of Scott Robertson. He will need to find a method to bring that usually All Black consistency back before it is too late for him.

After being Argentina in round one, the All Blacks lost to the same opposition a week later. The same against South Africa, win then defeat. They will do well to make it two from two against the Wallabies.

New Zealand Team News

All Blacks captain, Scott Barrett has been ruled out with injury, so Fabian Holland comes into the side. Cody Taylor also returns to the side following concussion. Perhaps the biggest news sees star scrumhalf, Cameron Roigard back in the side after missing two months with injury.

Australia Form

Australia are back! That is what we have heard throughout the Rugby Championship, or perhaps since the British & Irish Lions tour. They are certainly a lot better than last season, and the season before that, but much improvement is still required.

The positive thing is that the Wallabies are on the way up. They top the Rugby Championship table against all odds, albeit by a single point. However, despite all the positive changes and improvements under Joe Schmidt, there is still a softness about the Wallabies.

In each of their four matches thus far, Australia have started poorly, allowing the opposition to take hefty half-time leads. What is also true is that they fought back in the second half of all four games, twice successfully and twice falling narrowly short.

However, that is a trend that cannot continue if they want long-term, consistent performance and results. It will certainly be the case at Eden Park where a slow start could see them blown off the park against an All Blacks team eager to make people forget what happened a fortnight ago.

Australia Team News

Rob Valetini, Andrew Kellaway and Tom Wright are all out with injury while Will Skelton is unavailable after returning to his French club. Those are huge losses for the Wallabies, particularly Skelton and Valetini.

Lukhan Salakaia-Loto makes his first start at lock while Harry Potter returns to the side at wing. Ryan Lonergan is on the bench.

Verdict

New Zealand v Australia

I am backing New Zealand to cover the -14 handicap and Will Jordan to score a couple of tries.

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