South Africa vs Australia Predictions - Improved Wallabies can challenge Springboks on the highveld

Ralph Staniforth

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Last updated: 2 hours ago

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South Africa has dominated recent encounters against Australia.
The Springboks are defending champions with a strong match history.
Despite past losses, Australia's form has improved under Joe Schmidt.

South Africa have won their last 4 matches against Australia. (Getty Images)

South Africa vs Australia Predictions

South Africa dominated Australia in 2024, but the Wallabies are a vastly improved side in 2025. Winning in South Africa is unlikely, but I do feel the Wallabies will get inside the 18.5 handicap on Saturday in Johannesburg.

South Africa vs Australia Predictions
Head to Head
South Africa Form
South Africa Team News
Australia Form
Australia Team News

South Africa have won their last 4 matches against Australia.
South Africa have won their last 4 matches against Australia by 16, 31, 26 & 18 points.
South Africa have won their last 7 matches.
South Africa have covered the -18.5 handicap in 4 of their last 5 matches.
Australia have not lost by 18.5 or more points in their last 8 matches.
Australia have won 4 of their last 8 matches.

Head to Head

South Africa have won their last four matches against Australia. In the 2024 Rugby Championship, they met twice in Australia with the Springboks winning 33-7 and 30-12.

Overall, South Africa lead 52-40 with three draws in 95 matches. Here is our full breakdown of head-to-head fixtures between South Africa and Australia.

South Africa Form

South Africa are in a very strong position entering the 2025 Rugby Championship. They are the defending champions and have also won the last two Rugby World Cups.

The Springboks have not really been tested in 2025 though. They cruised past the Barbarians, Italy and Georgia during the July internationals. The highlight was probably the 45-0 victory over Italy in the second test before they thrashed Georgia 55-10 a week later.

South Africa have won their last seven matches and 13 of their last 14. Their only defeat in the last eight came away to Argentina during last year’s Rugby Championship.

South Africa Team News

Rassie Erasmus named his side on Monday already. There were a few surprising selectins with Cheslin Kolbe and Damian de Allende missing out through niggles. Andre Esterhuisen will start at inside centre with the in-form Edwill van der Merwe on the wing. Captain, Siya Kolisi starts at eight.

Australia Form

Australia are in a far better place than they were a year ago. Joe Schmidt has turned the Wallabies fortunes around after finishing bottom of the 2024 Rugby Championship with one win.

Improvement could have been seen over their November tour to Europe already where Australia beat England and Wales, and took Ireland to the death, losing by three points.

However, the big change was visible on the recent British & Irish Lions tour. After a poor performance in the first test, Australia lost the second test with the final play of the game – 29-26. It could have been very different but for a controversial, however, correct, refereeing call.

In the final Test, the Wallabies showed their class, winning 22-12 against the Lions. That should give them heaps of confidence heading into this two-match tour of South Africa.

Australia Team News

While the Wallabies have yet to announce their side, it is expected that veteran flyhalf, James O’Connor will start. Noah Lolesio is the first choice, but he has been injured since before the Lions tour while Tom Lynagh, Lolesio’s deputy, was injured in the final test against the Lions.

Verdict

South Africa v Australia

I am backing Australia to get within 18.5 points of South Africa. There may also be value on a Springbok win by 1-12 points. Once the odds are available, the in-form Edwill van der Merwe is worth looking at in the try scoring markets.

Australia +18.5

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