Ireland vs Wales Predictions - Wales improvement to continue in Dublin

Ralph Staniforth

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Last updated: 1 hour ago

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Ralph Staniforth 1 hour ago

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Ireland's performance at Twickenham was a boost, but their title hopes depend on unlikely French slip-ups.
Wales showed recent improvement against Scotland despite a grim overall record.
Ireland is predicted to win, yet Wales might get within the +26.5 handicap.

Wales to challenge Ireland in Dublin (Getty Images)

Ireland vs Wales Predictions

This is a tough one to call given Ireland’s performance at Twickenham and Wales improvement last week. I don’t feel that Wales can really challenge in Dublin, but I am leaning towards them getting withing the 26.5 handicap.

Ireland vs Wales Predictions
Head to Head
Ireland Form
Wales Form
Ireland vs Wales News & Starting Lineup

Ireland have won their last 2 matches.
Ireland have won their last 4 matches against Wales.
Ireland have won 6 of their last 7 home matches against Wales (1 draw).
Wales have lost their last 14 Six Nations matches.

Head to Head

Ireland have won their last four matches against Wales, including a 27-18 success in Cardiff last year. Wales last win came in 2021 and their last win in Dublin dates back to 2012.

Ireland Form

Ireland come into the fourth round of the 2026 Six Nations in third place with two wins and a defeat in the opening three rounds. They are on nine points, six off the leaders France.

While the title is not mathematically gone, Ireland’s chances are minimal as France will have to slip up twice in the final two rounds, a very unlikely scenario. The Irish lost their opening game against France (36-14) in Paris, a result that almost sealed their fate.

A week later, Ireland returned to Dublin with a stuttering performance, beating Italy 20-13 in a match that could easily have seen Italy at least get a draw. However, despite their drop in form, Ireland produced a stunning display a fortnight ago at Twickenham, beating England 42-21.

That performance came out of nowhere from the Irish as they had looked to be on a downward trend in terms of performance for the last 12 months. Perhaps that result will give them the boost they need to return to the form that took them to the top of the world rankings a couple of years ago.

Wales Form

Welsh rugby is in huge trouble and has been for the last three or so years. Results on the field have been atrocious (just two wins since the conclusion of the 2023 Rugby World Cup) and off field problems persist, especially in terms of the financial health of the game in Wales.

There has been little promise from the Welsh team on the field until their last outing. In round one of the Six Nations, Wales lost 48-7 to England at Twickenham before being thrashed 54-12 at home by France in the second round.

However, in round three, at home to Scotland, Wales produced arguably their best performance since beating Australia at the 2023 Rugby World Cup in 2023. Wales lost 26-23 to Scotland but the performance was very good and hopefully signs of things starting to turn around.

Ireland vs Wales News & Starting Lineup

Ireland: 15 Jamie Osborne, 14 Robert Baloucoune, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Stuart McCloskey, 11 Jacob Stockdale, 10 Jack Crowley, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Caelan Doris, 7 Nick Timoney, 6 Jack Conan, 5 Tadhg Beirne, 4 James Ryan, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Rónan Kelleher, 1 Tom O’Toole

Replacements: 16 Tom Stewart, 17 Michael Milne, 18 Thomas Clarkson, 19 Joe McCarthy, 20 Josh van der Flier, 21 Nathan Doak, 22 Tom Farrell, 23 Ciaran Frawley.

Jack Crowley has seemingly taken the 10 jumper from Sam Prendergast, at least for the time being. It is worth looking out for Dan Sheehan in the try scoring markets given his recent form.

Wales: 15 Louis Rees-Zammit, 14 Ellis Mee, 13 Eddie James, 12 Joe Hawkins, 11 Josh Adams, 10 Dan Edwards, 9 Tomos Williams, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 James Botham, 6 Alex Mann, 5 Ben Carter, 4 Dafydd Jenkins, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Dewi Lake (captain), 1 Rhys Carre.

Replacements: 16 Ryan Elias, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Archie Griffin, 19 Adam Beard, 20 Olly Cracknell, 21 Kieran Hardy, 22 Jarrod Evans, 23 Louie Hennessey.

Wales will once again most likely have to deal with very little possession, which brings Aaron Wainwright into play with his strong defence. Lock Dafydd Jenkins will also have a massive roll to play, particularly at the breakdown where Wales will have to challenge the Irish physicality.

Verdict

Ireland v Wales

Ireland should win with relative comfort, but I do feel Wales can get within the +26.5 handicap.

Wales +26.5

Handicap

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