Wales vs Italy Predictions - Wales can break Six Nations losing streak

Ralph Staniforth

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Last updated: 1 hour ago

Ralph Staniforth 1 hour ago

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Wales shows improvement with strong recent performances.
Italy has a winning streak against Wales, including historic victories.
Wales is backed at +3.5, signaling a potential breakthrough.

Wales improvement to continue with a win (Getty images)

Wales vs Italy Predictions

Wales improvement over the last two rounds gives them hope for this match while Italy are not used to being the favourites. I think this could turn on then if they do not get an early lead. It’s a tough one to call but I am leaning on Wales +3.5.

Wales vs Italy Predictions
Head to Head
Wales Form
Italy Form
Wales vs Italy Starting Lineup & Team News

Wales have lost their last 16 Six Nations matches.
Italy have won 2 of their last 4 matches.
Italy have won 3 of their last 4 matches against Wales.
Italy have won their last 2 matches against Wales in Cardiff.

Head to Head

While Wales have dominated this fixture historically, Italy have won three of the last four, including their 2024 and 2025 Six Nations matches. They have also won the last two in Cardiff.

Wales Form

Wales have lost all four of their Six Nations fixtures in 2026 and are set to finish bottom of the table yet again. However, on a more promising note, they have put in two strong performances in the last two rounds which should give them, and importantly their fans, some confidence.

After heavy defeats to England away and France at home in round one and two, Wales narrowly lost out 26-23 at home to Scotland. It was a game which Wales led comfortably at the break but let it slip in the second half.

Last weekend, in Dublin against Ireland, Wales were again more than just competitive, losing 27-17 against a far more fancied opponent. There is still much for Wales to work on in their game, but that improvement is a very sign at the very least.

Italy Form

Italy are enjoying an outstanding Six Nations again this year and it has been coming for a while. Every season they tend to win against the odds and then come up just short in another fixture.

However, in round one against Scotland in Rome, Italy played the conditions better, winning 18-15 on a stormy afternoon. A week later, the Italians were on the verge of another big result but lost 20-13 in Dublin to Ireland.

Their third-round match against France was comfortably lost on the scoreboard but in reality, Italy pushed a strong French team all the way but failed to take their few scoring opportunities.

Back home last Saturday, Italy pulled off an incredible win against England, their first ever success against the English. It was a tight game throughout, but Italy had to fight from eight points down in the second half to get the result – not something they would have managed a year or two back.

Wales vs Italy Starting Lineup & Team News

Wales have named an unchanged lineup for this final Six Nations encounter. Steve Tandy, when asked whether performance or the result is more crucial, said, ““I think performance. If we get the performance, the result will follow.”

Wales: 15 Louis Rees-Zammit, 14 Ellis Mee, 13 Eddie James, 12 Joe Hawkins, 11 Josh Adams, 10 Dan Edwards, 9 Tomos Williams, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 James Botham, 6 Alex Mann, 5 Ben Carter, 4 Dafydd Jenkins, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Dewi Lake (captain), 1 Rhys Carre.

Replacements: 16 Ryan Elias, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Archie Griffin, 19 Adam Beard, 20 Olly Cracknell, 21 Kieran Hardy, 22 Jarrod Evans, 23 Blair Murray.

Italy: 15 Lorenzo Pani, 14 Louis Lynagh, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12 Tommaso Menoncello, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Alessandro Fusco, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Manuel Zuliani, 6 Michele Lamaro (captain), 5 Federico Ruzza, 4 Niccolò Cannone, 3 Muhamed Hasa, 2 Giacomo Nicotera, 1 Danilo Fischetti.

Replacements: 16 Tommaso Di Bartolomeo, 17 Mirco Spagnolo, 18 Giosuè Zilocchi, 19 Riccardo Favretto, 20 David Odiase, 21 Stephen Varney, 22 Leonardo Marin, 23 Tommaso Allan.