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Australia vs British & Irish Lions 1st Test Predictions - Australia to get close in first test against Lions

Ralph Staniforth

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Last updated: 16 Jul 2025

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Ralph Staniforth 16 Jul 2025

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Lions favorites after 5 strong warm-up wins.
Australia's recent form variably positive, with key wins and losses.
Predictions suggest a high-scoring game with Australia losing by under 9.5 points.

Expired

Lions backed for narrow win in 1st Test (Getty Images)

Australia vs British & Irish Lions Predictions

The tourists are big favourites to win the first test and the series, and rightly so. However, if Australia are to upset the odds in this series, the general feeling is that they must hit the Lions early and this first test provides their best opportunity for a win.

Australia vs British & Irish Lions Predictions
Head to Head
Australia Form
Australia Team News
British & Irish Lions Form
British & Irish Lions Team News

The big difference here is that the B+I Lions have five warm-up games under their belt while Australia only have the one match. I do think the tourists will win but a fast start by the hosts could see them get within 9.5 points.

Australia have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
Australia lost to Ireland and Scotland in 2024 but beat England and Wales.
British & Irish Lions have won their last 5 matches.
British & Irish Lions have won their last 5 matches by 47, 40, 11, 12 & 48 points.

Head to Head

When the British & Irish Lions toured Australia in 2013, they won the series 2-1.

Australia Form

Australian rugby union has taken a dive in terms of performance in recent years. From failing to get beyond the group stage at the 2023 Rugby World Cup, to another horrid Rugby Championship in 2024.

During that tournament, Australia finished bottom of the table. They managed one win against Argentina, lost the other against Los Pumas and were well beaten by South Africa and New Zealand.

Things were looking bleak, but Joe Schmidt finally started to put his stamp on the squad during their Northern Hemisphere tour in November. The Wallabies quite dramatically beat England at Twickenham before thrashing Wales in Cardiff.

Australia were no match for Scotland as the Scots won 27-13 at Murrayfield. In their final tour game, Australia came within inches of beating Ireland, losing 22-19.

The Aussies played just one warm-up game a couple of weeks ago. They managed to scrape over the line, beating Fiji 21-18.

Australia Team News

Joe Schmidt has a few selection headaches and lacks serious experience in key areas. Most notably at flyhalf, which could be crucial to the outcome of this game.

British & Irish Lions Form

The British & Irish Lions come into this three-match series as heavy favourites to win. However, they more than anyone will tell you that the hosts cannot be taken lightly.

The Lions lost their first match together against Argentina in Dublin but have won all five warm-up games in Australia. They were in free-scoring form, scoring 50+ points twice, 36 and 48 points. Only the Waratahs held them to under 36 in a 21-10 Lions win.

There will be a big focus on set piece dominance for the tourists; they know Australia are weak in that area, but Farrell also enjoys playing a ball-in-hand style, just like with Ireland. Whether those systems can work with so many different national sides coming together remains to be seen.

British & Irish Lions Team News

As always, there has been much debate about who the B+I Lions will select but Andy Farrell is likely to stick with players he knows. Expect a large Irish contingent in the squad. Owen Farrell is expected to miss out with Finn Russell set to start at 10.

Verdict

Australia v British & Irish Lions

I am backing this match to see over 49.5 points and for Australia to lose by less than 9.5 points.

Australia +9.5

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