Otago vs Hawke's Bay Predictions - Otago to prevail against Hawke's Bay in NPC quarter-final
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- Otago have won 4 consecutive home games.
- Hawke's Bay enter the match on a four-game losing streak.
- Otago are tipped to cover the -5.5 handicap in their NPC quarter-final match.
Otago are on a winning streak at home (Getty Images)
Otago vs Hawke's Bay Predictions
Otago have come good in the NPC lately, securing a home quarter-final for their efforts and they regularly win in their own backyard. Hawke's Bay struggled to win their matches during the closing stages of their campaign.
- Otago have won 3 of their last 4 fixtures.
- Otago have won 4 consecutive home games.
- Hawke's Bay have lost 4 consecutive fixtures.
- Hawke's Bay have 2 consecutive away games.
Head to Head
Hawke's Bay have the advantage over Otago, with 14 victories to three in 17 meetings in the National Provincial Championship.
Hawke's Bay defeated Otago 35-24 at home earlier this season.
Otago Form
Otago scored three converted tries in the first half against Auckland last weekend but went into half-time trailing 28-21.
The home side scored three converted tries and slotted a late penalty in the second half to secure a narrow 45-42 victory over Auckland.
Earlier in the season, the Blue and Gold defeated Southland 41-14 away, lost 19-15 at home to Canterbury, beat Manawatu 29-27 away, Wellington 61-22 at home and Waikato 43-38 at home, then lost 35-24 away to Hawke's Bay, defeated Tasman 57-33 at home, and Counties Manukau 50-21 away before losing 32-21 away to North Harbour.
Otago placed third in the NPC table during the regular season, with 37 points after ten rounds.
Otago closed out their campaign at home with four consecutive victories, improving their record to ten wins in their last 11 at their stadium, giving them the edge to come out on top against Tasman in the quarter-finals.
Hawke's Bay Form
Hawke's Bay Magpies failed to trouble the scoreboard in the first half against Counties Manukau last weekend, going into the break trailing 12-0.
Hawke's Bay shut Counties Manukau out in the second half, but could only manage a converted try, losing 12-7 away from home.
Earlier in their campaign, the Magpies beat Wellington 55-33 away, Tasman 50-19 at home, Auckland 44-31 away, Manawatu 59-17 at home, Southland 36-21 away, and Otago 35-24 at home before losing 31-24 to North Harbour at home, 32-17 away to Bay of Plenty, and 50-14 at home to Taranaki.
Hawke's Bay finished sixth in the National Provincial Championship standings during the regular season, with 33 points after ten matches.
Hawke's Bay Magpies had a strong start to their campaign, but dropped off the pace during the closing stages of the season, losing four in a row, which is not the ideal form to have when taking on Otago in the quarter-finals, as their opponents have seldom lost at home recently.
Team News
Otago
Nic Souchon, Joseva Tamani, Sam Nemec-Vial, Finn Hurley, Christian Lio-Willie, and Moana Takataka each crossed the try line against Auckland last weekend.
Cam Millar slotted all six conversions and landed a late penalty to win the match.
Starting XV: Benjamin Lopas, Henry Bell, Saula Ma’u, Will Stodart, Joseva Tamani, Oliver Haig, Lucas Casey, Christian Lio-Willie (C), Kieran McClea, Cameron Millar, Sam Nemec-Vial, Jake Te Hiwi, Jona Nareki, Jae Broomfield, Finn Hurley
Replacements: Liam Coltman, Rohan Wingham, Moana Takataka, Harry Irving, Charles Elton, Joel Lam, Patrick Pellegrini, Josh Whaanga
Hawke's Bay Magpies
Darby Lancaster scored the only try for the Magpies against Counties Manukau last weekend.
Harry Godfrey landed a conversion in the match.
Starting XV: Clement Castets, Jacob Devery (CC), Joe Apikotoa, Tom Allen, Geoff Cridge, Frank Lochore (CC), Sam Smith, Cooper Flanders, Folau Fakatava, Harry Godfrey, Darby Lancaster, Lukas Ripley, Bailyn Sullivan, Nic Benn, Zarn Sullivan
Replacements: Kianu Kereru-Symes, Hadlee Hay-Horton, Manahi Goulton, Hunter Morrison, Patrick Mauga, Connor McLeod, Will Cole, Neria Fomai
Verdict
Otago have made their home ground a fortress in the NPC in recent seasons and are tipped to cover the -5.5 handicap in their quarter-final match against Hawke's Bay.
Otago -5.5
Handicap
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