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Ospreys vs Connacht Predictions - Ospreys set to win Challenge Cup opener

Brad Newcomb

Editor

Last updated: 06 Dec 2025

Brad Newcomb 06 Dec 2025

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Ospreys have won 4 of their last 7 home matches.
Connacht struggles to win away games lately.
Ospreys are favoured to cover the handicap.

Expired

Ospreys have a solid record against Connacht at home (Getty Images)

The Ospreys reached the quarter-finals of the European Challenge Cup last season and have had success against Connacht at home in recent matchups. Connacht have been struggling to win away from home.

Ospreys have lost 3 of their last 5 fixtures (URC).
Ospreys have won 4 of their last 7 home matches in all competitions.
Ospreys have won 4 of their last 6 home games against Connacht.
Connacht have lost 3 of their last 5 fixtures (URC).
Connacht have lost 6 of their last 7 away games (URC).
Connacht have won 4 of their last 5 matches against the Ospreys.

Head to Head

The Ospreys have the advantage with 19 victories to ten against Connacht in 29 meetings.

Ospreys Form

The Ospreys had a solid European Challenge Cup campaign last season, but fell short in the quarter-finals, losing 20-18 to Lyon.

The Ospreys sit in 13th place in the United Rugby Championship standings after six rounds with eight points.

The Ospreys' previous five home games have yielded fair results. They lost 20-18 to Lyon, 36-19 to Cardiff, defeated the Dragons 57-24, and Zebre 24-0 before losing 42-17 to the Glasgow Warriors.

The Ospreys have been lacking consistency lately; however, they have been in decent nick at home and have recorded four wins in their last five clashes with Connacht on their own turf.

Connacht Form

Connacht faced Racing 92 in the quarter-finals of the EPCR Challenge Cup last season, but came up short against the Top 14 outfit, losing 43-40.

Connacht are 9th in the United Rugby Championship table with 14 points from five matches.

Connacht lost 34-29 to the Stormers, 26-7 to the Lions, and defeated Zebre 22-12 before losing 14-8 to Cardiff and 17-15 to Munster in their last five away fixtures.

Connacht have registered four victories in their last five matches against the Ospreys; however, they have not been at their best away from home, losing six of their previous seven.

Team News

Ospreys

Starting XV: Garyn Phillips, Sam Parry, Tom Botha, Rhys Davies, Ryan Smith, James Ratti, Harri Deaves, Ross Moriarty, Reuben Morgan-Williams, Dan Edwards, Iestyn Hopkins, Phil Cokanasiga, Evardi Boshoff, Dan Kasende, Jack Walsh

Replacements: Lewis Lloyd, Gareth Thomas, Rhys Henry, Huw Sutton, Gwilym Evans, Luke Davies, Max Nagy, Keelan Giles

Connacht

In the build-up to this weekend’s match, Stuart Lancaster said: “We enter the Challenge Cup with strong ambitions of winning it, and we also want to use these next two weeks to give some players an opportunity to impress. We’ve a good mix of youth and experience for Sunday, with the likes of Bundee as captain and plenty of other centurions, especially in the front row.”

Starting XV: Seán Naughton, Shane Jennings, Sam Gilbert, Bundee Aki, Finn Treacy, Jack Carty, Ben Murphy, Denis Buckley, Dave Heffernan, Finlay Bealham, Joe Joyce, David O’Connor, Josh Murphy, Seán O’Brien, Sean Jansen

Replacements: Eoin de Buitléar, Jordan Duggan, Jack Aungier, Darragh Murray, Paul Boyle, Colm Reilly, Sean Walsh, Harry West

Verdict

Ospreys v Connacht

The Ospreys have solid form against Connacht at home and are tipped to cover the -1.5 handicap in their opening EPCR Challenge Cup match.

Ospreys -1.5

Handicap

@1.91 - 3 Units

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Ospreys Win

Result

@1.72 - 2 Units

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