New Zealand vs South Africa Predictions - All Blacks to keep Eden Park record intact

Ralph Staniforth

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Last updated: 59 minutes ago

Ralph Staniforth 59 minutes ago

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New Zealand defends 50-match winning streak at Eden Park.
South Africa has won last 4 meetings, but not in NZ.
Both teams dealing with injuries and inconsistent recent form.
Key battles: set pieces and high balls.
Prediction: New Zealand to win by a small margin (1-12 points).

South Africa have lost their last 5 matches at Eden Park against New Zealand. (Getty Images)

New Zealand vs South Africa Predictions

The greatest rivalry in rugby union takes a step up this weekend with New Zealand defending a 50-match winning streak at Eden Park. The Springboks have won four in a row against the All Blacks, so the script is perfectly set for Saturday.

New Zealand vs South Africa Predictions
Head to Head
New Zealand Form
New Zealand Injuries & Team News
South Africa Form
South Africa Injuries & Team News

Fine margins will determine the outcome of this fixture. Both sides are under pressure and neither side is playing at their best. I have a suspicion that New Zealand will find a way to win this, but it will be by a very small margin.

New Zealand have won their last 50 matches at Eden Park.
South Africa have won their last 4 matches against New Zealand.
South Africa have lost their last 5 matches at Eden Park against New Zealand.

Head to Head

This is interesting. South Africa last won a test match at Eden Park in 1931, but they have won their last four matches against the All Blacks, albeit none of them were in New Zealand. See the full history and head-to-head of this great rivalry.

New Zealand Form

With the Rugby Championship in the balance heading into the third round of the Rugby Championship, New Zealand are under some pressure to get the job done this weekend. They are not only going for the title, but they will also be defending a 50-match winning streak at Eden Park stretching back to 1994.

The All Blacks began the Rugby Championship this season in fine fashion as they swept Argentina aside in the opening game. However, they came crashing down to earth a week later as Los Pumas beat them 29-23. That means all four teams have now won one and lost one heading into this round.

That second Test against Argentina will be a cause for concern among New Zealand players, coaching staff and supporters. Argentina bossed the gainline, completely dominated the aerial battle and comfortably stifled the All Black attack.

I do not believe there will be much concern about the All Blacks attack as that will flourish naturally once the rest of the game is in order. The biggest concern will be their trouble under the high ball, something South Africa will no doubt employ and test the back three.

While Eden Park is a fortress for the All Blacks, that winning streak adds another layer of pressure onto the side this Saturday. As if it isn’t enough that the Springboks have won the last four encounters against them.

New Zealand Injuries & Team News

Scott Robertson has some injuries to deal with and may want to relook at some positions with players struggling for form. Argentina dominated in the air so their may be a consideration to start Damian McKenzie at 15 and shift Will Jordan to wing.

South Africa Form

It is tough to judge the Springboks on the year thus far. They had resounding wins against Italy (twice), Georgia and the Barbarians in June and July, but it wasn’t the strongest opposition. They were no doubt undercooked in that first match against the Wallabies.

That result will still be a huge cause for concern because while the Australians were superb, South Africa still managed to throw away a 22-point lead on the highveld. That is not something the Springboks generally allow to happen.

In the second Test, the Springboks bounced back, winning 30-22 by taking a step back in playing style. It was wet in Cape Town as well, which pretty much made the kicking game a superior strategy, but still, they were under a lot of pressure throughout.

It remains to be seen what Rassie Erasmus does this weekend in terms of selection but one thing is sure, they will test the All Blacks under the high ball.

The key battles for this game will be the set piece and the high ball, whoever wins that, wins the game. And the Springboks will have to sort out their lineout which was poor in both tests against the Wallabies.

South Africa Injuries & Team News

Rassie Erasmus has gone off script this week, deciding to delay the team announcement until Thursday (usually on Tuesday). There is much talk on who the starters will be particularly at flyhalf. Given Erasmus’ history, he is sure to spring a surprise or two.

Verdict

New Zealand v South Africa

This is the biggest game of 2025 and next week when they meet again will be the second biggest of 2025. I am backing New Zealand to win this by 1-12 points.