New Zealand vs South Africa Women Predictions - Black Ferns in for a tough quarterfinal

Simon Lewis

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Last updated: 11 Sep 2025

Simon Lewis 11 Sep 2025

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New Zealand Women are strong favorites for the quarterfinal clash against South Africa.
Black Ferns have dominated their pool games, conceding just 27 points in the last three matches.
South Africa Women are quarterfinal debutants, and the main focus is whether they can keep the margin within +38.5 points.

Expired

New Zealand vs South Africa Women. (Getty Images)

New Zealand vs South Africa Women Predictions

New Zealand Women are overwhelming favourites with an upset very, very unlikely. However, the handicap does bring an interesting dynamic into this game.

New Zealand vs South Africa Women Predictions
Head to Head
New Zealand Women Form
New Zealand Women Team News
South Africa Women Form
South Africa Women Team News

South Africa Women rested 10 players last weekend and they will be up for the fight on Saturday. I believe that they can get within the +38.5 margin, particularly if they manage to score some early points.

New Zealand Women have won their last 5 matches.
New Zealand Women conceded just 27 points in their last 3 matches.
New Zealand Women have covered the -38.5 handicap in their last 3 matches.
South Africa Women have won 2 of their last 3 matches.
South Africa Women lost their last match by 47 points.

Head to Head

These two have only met once before with New Zealand winning comfortably. South Africa did host a Black Ferns XI recently, a series that ended 1-1, but that was against a largely third-string New Zealand side and did not count towards international results.

New Zealand Women Form

New Zealand Women are ranked third in the world currently and are the most successful women’s side in Rugby World Cup history. They have six titles from nine attempts and remain, alongside Canada, the biggest threat to England’s push for glory this year.

The Black Ferns cruised through the group stage, topping Pool C with 15 points from three games and a massive 129 positive points difference.

New Zealand began with a comprehensive 54-8 success against Spain before seeing off Japan 62-19. Their final pool game against Ireland was expected to be their toughest, but they still managed a 40-0 victory.

New Zealand Women Team News

New Zealand Women have a squad littered with world class talent. Their depth is only rivalled by fellow top sides and although they are likely to make some changes this weekend, quality will not drop.

South Africa Women Form

South Africa Women finished second in Pool D of the 2025 Women’s Rugby World Cup, winning two of their three matches and ended on 10 points. They shocked many with their vast improvement and this is their first ever visit to the quarterfinals.

After a clinical opening performance in which the Women Springboks beat Brazil 66-6, they upset the odds by beating the far more fancied Italians 29-24 which secured their quarterfinal berth.

In their final game against France, the South Africans fell short, losing 57-10. It is worth remembering that they played with a woman down for 20 minutes and rested key players for this fixture.

South Africa Women Team News

Swys de Bruin will ring the changes after making 10 changes for last week’s game. We can expect to see most of them back this Saturday.

Verdict

New Zealand v South Africa Women

I am backing South Africa Women to lose by less than 38.5 points on Saturday.

South Africa Women +38

Handicap

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