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Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Predictions - Rybakina to secure Aus Open title

John Eastwood

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Last updated: 31 Jan 2026

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John Eastwood 31 Jan 2026

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Sabalenka boasts a strong record in Melbourne but faces a formidable Rybakina.
Rybakina enters the final with a 9-match winning streak against top-10 players.
Rybakina's serving strength and current form make her a live value pick.

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Elena Rybakina in action against Jessica Pegula in the semi-final of the Australian Open (credit: Getty)

Sabalenka vs Rybakina Predictions

Sabalenka has dominated in Melbourne, but Rybakina’s recent wins over top players make her a live value pick here.

Sabalenka vs Rybakina Predictions
Head to Head
Sabalenka Form
Rybakina Form

Aryna Sabalenka has won 26 of her last 27 matches at the Australian Open.
She is 4–3 in Grand Slam finals, with all four titles coming on hard courts.
Elena Rybakina has won 19 of her last 20 tour-level matches.
She is on a nine-match winning streak against top-10 players.

Head to Head

Sabalenka holds a narrow 8-6 lead in 14 matches. Rybakina won the last time they met in the Masters Cup in 2025.

Sabalenka Form

Aryna Sabalenka stormed into her fourth straight Australian Open final with a commanding 6-2, 6-3 win over Elina Svitolina. She controlled the match throughout and never let the contest drift.

Aside from brief tight moments against Anastasia Potapova and Victoria Mboko earlier in the draw, Sabalenka has largely cruised past her opponents with authority

This run extends her winning streak to 11 matches, following her successful title defense in Brisbane earlier this month.

Remarkably, this is her seventh consecutive hard-court Grand Slam final, a feat unmatched since Martina Hingis achieved it in the late 1980s.

Sabalenka owns a 4–3 record in Grand Slam finals, with all four titles coming on hard courts at the Australian Open (2023, 2024) and the US Open (2024, 2025), and she will be looking to convert another dominant run into silverware.

Rybakina Form

Elena Rybakina defeated world No. 6 Jessica Pegula in straight sets, 6-3, 7-6, to reach her second Australian Open final. She weathered pressure in the second set, saving two set points before closing it out calmly.

Like her opponent, Rybakina has yet to drop a set in Melbourne, continuing the level that saw her installed as the second favourite at the start of the tournament.

She leads the field with 41 aces in Melbourne, collecting free points at will. When her serve is firing, Rybakina remains one of the toughest players to break down on hard courts.

This win extends her winning streak against top-10 opponents to nine matches, a run that began in Ningbo late last season.

Rybakina owns a 1–1 record in Grand Slam finals, having lifted the Wimbledon title in 2022 and finished runner-up at the Australian Open in 2023. She enters this final on a four-match winning streak in tour-level finals, having won seven of her last nine.

Verdict

Aryna Sabalenka v Elena Rybakina

Sabalenka’s dominance in Melbourne over the past two years sets a high bar, but Rybakina’s recent form against elite opponents cannot be ignored. Given how well she has matched up with top players lately, Rybakina looks primed to flip the script and claim revenge this time.

Elena Rybakina

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