Chiefs vs Crusaders Predictions - Crusaders backed to get close to Chiefs in Hamilton

Ralph Staniforth

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Last updated: 27 Feb 2026

Ralph Staniforth 27 Feb 2026

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Chiefs have won 5 of their last 6 games vs Crusaders.
The Crusaders aim to get within +8.5 handicap despite recent losses.
Both teams have strong lineups for this anticipated clash.

Expired

Crusaders can get close against Chiefs in repeat of 2025 Super Rugby final (Getty Images)

Chiefs vs Crusaders Predictions

The Crusaders have not started the season well, but they are a champion outfit and should bounce back at some point. Winning away to the Chiefs is a tough task but I do feel the defending champs can get within the +8.5 handicap.

Chiefs vs Crusaders Predictions
Head to Head
Chiefs Form
Crusaders Form
Chiefs vs Crusaders Squad & Starting Lineup

Chiefs have won 5 of their last 6 matches against the Crusaders.
Chiefs have won their opening 2 matches of 2026.
Chiefs have won their last 2 matches by 4 & 3 points.
Crusaders have lost their last 2 matches.
Crusaders conceded 50 points in their last match.

Head to Head

Chiefs have won five of their last six matches against the Crusaders, however, their last encounter in the 2025 Super Rugby final, saw the Crusaders win 16-12.

Chiefs Form

The Chiefs ended the 2025 season as runners-up and came into 2026 as favourites for the Super Rugby title. They have not disappointed in the opening two rounds, winning both games.

While it has been tight encounters, the Chiefs have done enough to secure the four points on each occasion. In round one, the Chiefs had a tough start in Auckland against the Blues but managed to come away with a 19-15 victory.

Last weekend, the Chiefs were away again, this time in Dunedin to a confident Highlanders side who had just beaten the Crusaders. It another game that could have gone either way, the Chiefs won 26-23.

Crusaders Form

The Crusaders are the defending champions after beating the Chiefs in the 2025 Super Rugby final. They came into this season as second favourites behind the Chiefs but have already slipped down the pecking order.

The 12-time Super Rugby champions are under pressure already after losing their opening two games. In round one, the Crusaders suffered a 25-23 defeat in Dunedin to the Highlanders, a game they would have felt they should have won.

Upsets happen though, but what happened last week was a shock to many. Usually, the Crusaders are exceptionally good at home, particularly against Australian sides, but the Brumbies put on a masterclass performance to beat the Crusaders 50-24.

Chiefs vs Crusaders Squad & Starting Lineup

Chiefs: 15 Etene Nanai-Seturo, 14 Emoni Narawa, 13 Daniel Rona, 12 Quinn Tupaea, 11 Leroy Carter, 10 Josh Jacomb, 9 Xavier Roe, 8 Luke Jacobson (captain), 7 Kaylum Boshier, 6 Simon Parker, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 4 Josh Lord, 3 George Dyer, 2 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 1 Jared Proffit

Replacements: 16 Tyrone Thompson, 17 Benet Kumeroa, 18 Reuben O’Neill, 19 Samipeni Finau, 20 Wallace Sititi, 21 Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi, 22 Tepaea Cook-Savage, 23 Lalakai Foketi

Crusaders: 15 Will Jordan, 14 Chay Fihaki, 13 Leicester Fainga’anuku, 12 David Havili (captain), 11 Sevu Reece, 10 Taha Kemara, 9 Noah Hotham, 8 Christian Lio-Willie, 7 Ethan Blackadder, 6 Dom Gardiner, 5 Jamie Hannah, 4 Antonio Shalfoon, 3 Fletcher Newell, 2 George Bell, 1 Tamaiti Williams

Replacements: 16 Manumaua Letiu, 17 George Bower, 18 Seb Calder, 19 Tahlor Cahill, 20 Corey Kellow, 21 Louis Chapman, 22 James White, 23 Dallas McLeod

Verdict

Chiefs v Crusaders

I am backing the Crusaders to get within the +8.5 handicap against the high-flying Chiefs in Hamilton.

Crusaders +8.5

Handicap

@1.91 - 5 Units

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