Cardiff vs Ospreys Predictions - Cardiff to come out on top against the Ospreys in Welsh derby

Brad Newcomb

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Last updated: 23 Apr 2026

Brad Newcomb 23 Apr 2026

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Cardiff have won 10 of last 11 home games.
Ospreys struggle away, but historically succeed at Cardiff with 4 wins in last 5 visits.
Cardiff are predicted to cover -5.5 handicap.

Expired

Cardiff have been in excellent form at home (Getty Images)

Cardiff have often won their home league games this season. The Ospreys have had a dismal campaign away from home in this edition of the URC, but have a solid record away at Cardiff.

Cardiff have won 2 of their last 5 fixtures in all competitions.
Cardiff have won 10 of their last 11 home games in all competitions.
Cardiff have lost 4 of their last 5 home matches to the Ospreys.
Ospreys have won 2 of their last 5 fixtures in all competitions.
Ospreys have lost 4 consecutive away games in all competitions.
Ospreys have won 3 of their last 5 games against Cardiff.

Head to Head

The Ospreys have a commanding lead of 28 victories to eight against Cardiff, including two draws in 38 meetings.

Cardiff lost 33-22 away to the Ospreys earlier this season.

Cardiff Form

Cardiff pulled off a stunning comeback in the second half against the Scarlets to win 28-24 away from home after trailing 24-7 with ten minutes to go in the match.

Cardiff have been in fine form at home in the URC this season. They defeated the Lions 33-20, Connacht 14-8, Edinburgh 20-19, and lost 21-17 to the Scarlets before beating the Dragons 22-19, Benetton 17-8, and Leinster 8-7.

Cardiff are 7th in the United Rugby Championship standings with 46 points from 15 games.

Cardiff have enjoyed consistent success at home in the league this season, and are on a four-match winning streak at their stadium across all competitions; however, they will have to play well, as the Ospreys defeated them earlier in their campaign.

Ospreys Form

The Ospreys secured a controversial 21-7 home victory over the Sharks last weekend, after leading 14-12 at the break.

The Ospreys have struggled away from home in the United Rugby Championship this season. They lost 53-40 to the Bulls, 26-10 to the Stormers, drew 19-19 with the Dragons, lost 19-17 to Edinburgh, and beat the Scarlets 26-19 before losing 31-19 to Benetton and 21-14 to Connacht.

The Ospreys are 10th in the URC table with 34 points from 15 matches.

The Ospreys have not been at their best away from home in the league this season, often losing, although they have had success away to Cardiff recently, winning four of their last five visits.

Team News

Cardiff

Cardiff head coach Corniel van Zyl highlighted the strengths of the Ospreys team after their previous meeting, and expects a similar performance from their opponents: “They basically physically dominated us in all aspects of the game. That was definitely one of our worst performances this season in terms of what we want to achieve and what we pride ourselves on.

“We know what’s coming… They’ve got a good set-piece and potent backs on the counter-attack. We have to be very good in that area to keep them at bay.”

Ospreys

The Sharks have formally asked the URC to investigate the incident involving Ethan Hooker's grounding of his try and Luke Morgan's late tackle on the Springbok player.