Connacht vs Ulster Predictions - Connacht to edge Ulster at home

Brad Newcomb

Editor

Last updated: 25 Dec 2025

Brad Newcomb 25 Dec 2025

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Connacht shows strong home form with recent victories.
Ulster have lost 4 of their last 5 away games.
Connacht favoured to cover the -1.5 handicap against Ulster.

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Connacht have been in solid form at home in recent outings (Getty Images)

Connacht found some form at home in their recent outings, scoring plenty of tries. Ulster have been struggling to win their away matches lately.

Connacht have won 2 of their last 5 games in all competitions.
Connacht have won 3 of their last 5 home matches in all competitions.
Connacht have won 3 of their last home games against Ulster.
Ulster have lost 4 of their last 5 away matches in all competitions.
Ulster have won 3 consecutive fixtures against Connacht.

Head to Head

Ulster have a commanding lead of 25 victories to ten over Connacht, including one draw in 36 meetings.

Connacht Form

Connacht were outplayed in the first half against the Dragons last weekend, scoring a converted try to trail 28-7 at half-time.

Connacht improved in the second half, scoring three converted tries, but failed to close the points gap, losing 48-28 to the Dragons away from home.

Connacht have had some solid results in their last five home matches. They lost to Edinburgh 31-21, beat Benetton 26-15, lost 28-27 to the Bulls before defeating the Sharks 44-17 and Black Lion 52-0.

Connacht are 9th in the United Rugby Championship table with 15 points from six games.

Connacht were in great shape in their previous two home fixtures, giving them the edge over an Ulster side that has been prone to losing on the road lately.

Ulster Form

Ulster had a solid first half against Leinster last weekend, scoring three tries and a conversion to lead 17-7 at the break.

However, Ulster only scored three points from a penalty in the second half, losing 24-20 away from home.

Before that result, Ulster lost 38-20 to Munster, 47-17 to Edinburgh, and defeated the Sharks 34-26 before losing 49-31 to the Lions, and 29-26 to Cardiff away from home.

Ulster are 5th in the United Rugby Championship standings with 22 points after six matches.

Ulster recorded their league double over Connacht in the URC last season, but they have not had much success away from home lately, losing three in a row.

Team News

Connacht

Head coach Stuart Lancaster highlighted that his team will have to play well to get the result this weekend: "Ulster are a quality side and we can clearly see the improvements from last season so we need to be at our best and all support and energy our supporters can bring will make a huge difference."

Starting XV: Sam Gilbert, Daniel Ryan, Cathal Forde, Bundee Aki, Finn Treacy, Jack Carty, Ben Murphy, Denis Buckley, Dave Heffernan, Finlay Bealham, Joe Joyce, David O’Connor, Josh Murphy, Cian Prendergast (Captain), Sean Jansen

Replacements: Dylan Tierney‑Martin, Jordan Duggan, Fiachna Barrett, Darragh Murray, Seán O’Brien, Matthew Devine, Josh Ioane, Hugh Gavin

Ulster

Cormac Izuchukwu has extended his stay with Ulster, confirming a new contract running until the summer of 2028.

Starting XV: Jacob Stockdale, Werner Kok, James Hume, Stuart McCloskey, Zac Ward, Jack Murphy, Conor McKee, Sam Crean, Tom Stewart, Scott Wilson, Harry Sheridan, Cormac Izuchukwu, David McCann, Nick Timoney (Captain), Juarno Augustus

Replacements: John Andrew, Angus Bell, Tom O’Toole, Joe Hopes, Bryn Ward, Nathan Doak, Jake Flannery, Jude Postlethwaite