Leinster vs Connacht Predictions - Leinster set to beat Connacht for a 12th straight time

Brad Newcomb

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Last updated: 01 Jan 2026

Brad Newcomb 01 Jan 2026

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Leinster have defeated Connacht 5 times in a row at home.
Connacht struggle to win their away fixtures.
Leinster tipped to cover -18.5 handicap.

Expired

Leinster often win their home matches at the Aviva Stadium (Getty Images)

Leinster are on a lengthy winning streak against Connacht at home and often win in their own backyard. Connacht have been in poor form away from home and seldom beat Leinster.

Leinster have won 6 consecutive fixtures in all competitions.
Leinster have won 9 of their last 10 home matches in all competitions.
Leinster have won 5 consecutive home games against Connacht.
Connacht have lost 8 of their last 9 away games in all competitions.
Connacht have lost 11 successive matches to Leinster.

Head to Head

Leinster have a commanding lead of 29 victories to eight against Connacht in 37 meetings.

Leinster Form

Leinster edged ahead in the first half against Munster, scoring a converted try to lead 7-0 at half-time.

Leinster landed two penalties in the second half to secure a narrow 13-8 away victory over Munster last weekend.

Leinster defeated the Sharks 31-5, lost 31-14 to Munster, and then beat Zebre 50-26, Harlequins 45-28, and Munster 24-20 in their last five home fixtures.

Leinster are 6th in the United Rugby Championship table with 25 points from eight matches.

Leinster will fancy their chances to win their seventh game in a row when they take on a struggling Connacht side on an 11-match losing streak against their hosts.

Connacht Form

Connacht scored a converted try and a penalty in the first half against Ulster last weekend, but trailed by two at the break.

Connacht added two more converted tries to their tally in the second half, but it was not enough, losing 29-24 to Ulster at home.

Connacht defeated the Zebre 22-12 before losing 18-8 to Cardiff, 17-15 to Munster, 24-21 to the Ospreys, and 48-28 to the Dragons in their last five away fixtures.

Connacht are 9th in the United Rugby Championship standings with 16 points from seven games.

Connacht must improve their away form to have a chance against Leinster; however, they have a dismal record at the Aviva Stadium, losing their last five visits consecutively.

Team News

Leinster

Centre Robbie Henshaw is a major doubt for Saturday’s clash with Connacht after the Ireland star was forced off shortly before half-time with a finger injury last weekend.

Leinster are still missing Hugo Keenan, Jamie Osborne, Ryan Baird, Jordan Larmour, Garry Ringrose, RG Snyman, and Jimmy O’Brien as they continue to recover from injuries.

Connacht

Head coach Stuart Lancaster confirmed that Mack Hansen may be sidelined long- term, as the Irish winger continues his recovery from foot surgery and could miss the remainder of the campaign.

Ciarán Frawley will leave Leinster after this season, with the Ireland international signing a two-year deal at Connacht beginning in 2026/27.

Connacht will be without hooker Hugh Gavin because of a shoulder issue, with Shamus Hurley-Langton ruled out until March following an operation.