Australia vs Argentina Predictions - Wallabies backed for victory in Townsville

Ralph Staniforth

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Last updated: 04 Sep 2025

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Ralph Staniforth 04 Sep 2025

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Australia improving under Joe Schmidt and strong at home.
Argentina has won 3 of last 4 vs Australia; recent inconsistency remains a concern.
Prediction: Wallabies to cover -5.5 spread, but expect a close, high-stakes match.

Expired

Australia have won 2 of their last 3 matches. (Getty Images)

Australia vs Argentina Predictions

The Rugby Championship has seldom been this tight after two rounds and both these two sides will still fancy a shot at the title. Australia have improved immensely this season but Argentina have the qualities to beat anyone on their day.

Australia vs Argentina Predictions
Head to Head
Australia Form
Australia Injuries & Team News
Argentina Form
Argentina Injuries & Team News

Inconsistency is what makes me nervous about the visitors in this fixture. The safest bet for me is to back the Wallabies to cover -5.5.

Australia have won 2 of their last 3 matches.
Australia won their last home Test match.
Argentina won their last match.
Argentina have won 3 of their last 4 matches against Australia.
Argentina won their last away match against Australia.

Head to Head

Argentina have won three of their last four matches against Australia, including the last time they played in Australia. Last season, each team won once with Australia sneaking a 20-19 win in the first match before Los Pumas demolished the Wallabies 67-27 a week later.

Australia Form

Australia come into round three of the Rugby Championship in second place after managing one win against the odds in South Africa. Since the British & Irish Lions series, the Wallabies have shown remarkable improvement under the guidance of Joe Schmidt and will look to continue that this weekend on home soil.

In round one of the Rugby Championship, the Wallabies looked like they were being blown away at Ellis Park. The Springboks raced into a 22-0 lead in as many minutes, but their composure and quality thereafter was simply superb.

They clawed their way back into the game, taking advantage of South Africa’s errors on attack. The Wallabies counter-attack on the day was second to none.

In the second test, South Africa reverted to type in the wet weather of Cape Town. Again, Australia didn’t take a backward step, matching their hosts in the physical exchanges and set piece.

Australia lost the game 30-22, failing to pick up a crucial losing bonus point, but in reality, they will take plenty of confidence from that performance. Some may say they were unfortunate to lose the game and while that may not quite be true, they did certainly have some unfortunate moments and decisions go against them.

Back home, Australia will be confident of continuing this upward trajectory against a very good, if somewhat inconsistent, Argentina side. They will offer a different challenge to the Wallabies, but the hosts will have to stand up to the test and perhaps play with a little bit less possession.

Australia Injuries & Team News

Captain Harry Wilson returns from a knee injury to lead this side once again. Tom Lynagh is also back in after missing both games against South Africa while Andrew Kellaway starts at fullback.

Argentina Form

Argentina will also be full of confidence heading into this fixture. They were disappointing in their first match against the All Blacks but bounced back to win the second 29-23 at home.

The biggest issue for Los Pumas is their inconsistency, and it has been so for a few years now. They have the quality and talent to be challenging and beating the best sides, but too often they just don’t pitch up on the day.

Last season during the Rugby Championship, Australia played Los Pumas twice in Argentina – each winning a game. In the first match, Argentina were dominant but somehow allowed the Aussies to get back into the game and win it at the death. A week later, Argentina thrashed them, putting 60 points on the Wallabies.

Argentina dominated the aerial battle in the second match against New Zealand which allowed them to get on the front foot on the gainline. The forwards did the rest, pressuring the All Blacks into uncharacteristic errors and then taking advantage of that.

Against Australia, Argentina may not be as dominant in the aerial battle, but it is likely that they will start off with that tactic to see if they can get one-up on the hosts. If not, they do have the ability to change the plan.

The key for the visitors this week will be to play their natural game, hold onto possession, but not allow Australia too many opportunities on the counter-attack – they have already proven how deadly they can be with some superb broken-field runners.

Argentina Injuries & Team News

Santiago Carreras continues at flyhalf in the only backline change for Argentina. There are two possible debutants, both on the bench in Geronimo Prisciantelli and Boris Wenger.

Verdict

Australia v Argentina

This game should be tight, but I do feel the Australians will cover the -5.5 handicap.

Australia -5.5

Handicap

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