New Zealand vs Australia Bledisloe Cup Predictions - Tight contest expected at Eden Park

Ralph Staniforth

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Last updated: 3 hours ago

Ralph Staniforth 3 hours ago

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New Zealand remain unbeaten at Eden Park in 53 matches, but have lost their last three Tests.
Australia come in with five straight wins and are tipped to cover the 11.5-point handicap.
Despite past dominance, the All Blacks face pressure after recent losses, while Australia have momentum.

Eden Park to test unbeaten Wallabies (Getty Images)

New Zealand vs Australia Predictions

The All Blacks and Wallabies meet for the first Bledisloe Cup Test in Auckland on Saturday. It promises to be a cracking encounter with both teams looking to build on some strong performances of late.

New Zealand vs Australia Predictions
Head to Head
New Zealand Form
Australia Form
New Zealand vs Australia Team News & Analysis
New Zealand vs Australia Starting Lineups

One really fancies the Aussies to give it a go this weekend but it is tough to go against the All Blacks at Eden Park. The handicap of 11.5 is steep for me though, so I am leaning towards the Aussies to cover the margin.

The All Blacks are under a bit more pressure after their series defeat to South Africa while Australia, under Less Kiss have yet to lose in five Tests.

New Zealand are unbeaten in 53 matches at Eden Park.
New Zealand have lost their last 3 matches.
New Zealand have won their last 11 matches against Australia.
Australia have won their last 5 matches.

Head to Head

New Zealand have dominated this fixture with 11 straight wins against the Wallabies. There have been some tight calls, but the majority of the games have been won by more than a score.

In 2025 they met twice with New Zealand winning 33-24 at Eden Park and 28-14 in Perth.

New Zealand Form

There is no question that the All Blacks were nowhere near their usual standards under Scott Robertson in 2025 and thus the change of coach. While results have not been great since Dave Rennie took over, the style of play has improved and most accept that it will take some time for the All Blacks to return to their best.

The only rugby New Zealand has played in 2026 was in the Greatest Rivalry Tour to South Africa. They won all four games against the provincial sides and also beat the Springboks in the first Test 33-16.

However, the double World Cup champions then stepped it up a gear and the All Blacks lost the subsequent three matches, going down 43-28 in the final test in Baltimore on 12 September.

Australia Form

This is an exceptionally important year for Australia rugby as they are hosting the Rugby World Cup next year. It has been a dry few years for the Wallabies but they are finally starting to look like a team that will compete in 2027.

There were more than just glimpses in 2025, however, inconsistency plagued the Aussies. This year, they are unbeaten in five matches, not overly convincingly, but they are still getting over the line.

Australia defeated Japan twice, once by three points but then dominated the second test to win with ease. Their two-match tour to Argentina saw them win 27-21 and draw 28-28. The big result came in their last fixture just a couple of weeks ago as they defeated South Africa 42-38 in Perth.

New Zealand vs Australia Team News & Analysis

New Zealand struggled at set piece against South Africa, particularly in the scrum, so they would certainly have looked at that aspect. Australia shouldn't pose much threat in that department though - it could be quite an even contest which would create quite a spectacle.

In team news, Beauden Barrett makes a his first start at fullback for the year with Leroy Carter returning to the wing. Damian McKenzie starts at flyhalf. Wallace Sititi starts at eight with Peter Lakai and Tupou Vaa'i on the side of the scrum.

Australia will be pleased with their win over South Africa but will be cognisant that it was an opposition that made 13 changes to their side for that game. Discipline almost cost the Wallabies at the end of that game as they had four yellow cards at the same time.

It is unlikely that Australia will face quite the same physicality against New Zealand, so that will be a little relief for them, but they do need to tighten up their set piece and discipline.

Isaac Henry returns to the Test side for Australia at outside centre and is the only change from the starting lineup that featured against South Africa.

New Zealand vs Australia Starting Lineups

New Zealand: 15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Quinn Tupaea, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Leroy Carter, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Wallace Sititi, 7 Peter Lakai, 6 Tupou Vaa’i, 5 Josh Lord, 4 Scott Barrett, 3 Fletcher Newell, 2 Codie Taylor (captain), 1 Ethan De Groot.

Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 George Bower, 18 Pasilio Tosi, 19 Shannon Frizell, 20 Anton Segner, 21 Kyle Preston, 22 Rieko Ioane, 13 Josh Moorby.

Australia: 15 Tom Wright, 14 Max Jorgensen, 13 Isaac Henry, 12 Len Ikitau, 11 Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, 10 Ben Donaldson, 9 Ryan Lonergan, 8 Harry Wilson (captain), 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Rob Valetini, 5 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 4 Jeremy Williams, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 1 Angus Bell.

Replacements: 16 Josh Nasser, 17 Aidan Ross, 18 Massimo De Lutiis, 19 Lachlan Shaw, 20 Nick Champion de Crespigny, 21 Tate McDermott, 22 Declan Meredith, 23 Harry Potter.

Verdict

New Zealand v Australia 1st Test

I am backing Australia to get within the 11.5 handicap at Eden Park. They are in good form and confident while the All Blacks need to bounce back from three straight defeats. In the try scorer markets, Will Jordan is certainly one to look out for.

Australia +11.5

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Ralph is from South Africa and studied Sports Science post school at ETA (Education Teachers Academy) in Cape Town.

He has always had a great passion for sport and this led him into the world of sports journalism, while coaching on the side. Since 2012 Ralph has worked as a journalist and covered many topics from business to sport.

Over the last seven years he has interviewed numerous top rugby and cricket players and coaches in South Africa.

Ralph has been betting on sports for the last ten years. He’s knowledgeable on numerous topics including football, rugby, cricket, tennis and golf.

He supports Manchester United (football), Cheetahs (rugby), Knights (cricket) and has a newly found appreciation for Dominic Thiem on the tennis courts.