2026 Six Nations Round 1 Predictions (5-7 February)

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Italy vs Scotland Predictions - Italy can run Scotland close in Six Nations encounter

Ralph Staniforth

Editor

Last updated: 06 Feb 2026

Ralph Staniforth 06 Feb 2026

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Italy eyes an upset, leveraging recent home success.
Scotland seeks a top-three Six Nations finish.
Both teams have shown strong recent performances.

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Italy vs scotland rugby 2025 six nations

Italy can upset the odds in Rome (Getty Images)

Italy vs Scotland Predictions

This is set up to be a cracking contest. Scotland are favourites but Italy have proven the quality they possess on home soil. I am backing the hosts to get within +9.5 points and perhaps upset the odds with a win.

Italy beat Scotland the last time they played in Rome (2024).
Italy have won 2 of their last 3 matches.
Scotland have won 15 of their last 16 matches against Italy.

Head to Head

Scotland have dominated this fixture, winning 15 of their last 16 matches against Italy. Italy’s one win in that run came in a 31-29 win at home in 2024. Last season, Italy were very competitive again but lost out 31-19 at Murrayfield.

Italy Form

Italy are a vastly improved side over the last two years and have taken some of the biggest sides close in that period, including beating Scotland in 2024.

This is a crucial fixture for Italy as defeat is likely going to see them for the fight with Wales for bottom spot. Last year, Italy went relatively well in the Six Nations, despite only beating Wales. They had a narrow loss to Ireland and were pretty good against England away at times.

In November, Italy upset the odds at home, beating Australia 26-19 before losing 32-14 to South Africa. However, the scoreline against the Springboks doesn’t quite tell the tale of the game as Italy were still very close going into the last quarter.

They ended 2025 with a 34-19 victory over Chile at home. Most first-choice players were rested for that fixture.

Scotland Form

Scotland will want to push for a top three finish in the Six Nations, and this result will have a major bearing ont aht. The Scots finished fourth last year, but their performances perhaps warranted more.

During July, Scotland beat the Maori All Blacks and Samoa but lost to Fiji. This was a tour without most of their first-choice players.

In November, Scotland suffered defeat to New Zealand and Argentina after thrashing the USA at the start of the month. Scotland will feel like they could and perhaps should have beaten both New Zealand and Argentina, but late concentration loss cost them. In their final fixture, Scotland hammered Tonga 56-0.

Italy vs Scotland Lineups

Italy: 15 Leonardo Marin, 14 Louis Lynagh, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12 Tommaso Menoncello, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Alessandro Fusco, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Manuel Zuliani, 6 Michele Lamaro (captain), 5 Andrea Zambonin, 4 Niccolo Cannone, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Giacomo Nicotera, 1 Danilo Fischetti.

Replacements: 16 Tommaso Di Bartolomeo, 17 Mirco Spagnolo, 18 Muhamed Hasa, 19 Federico Ruzza, 20 Riccardo Favretto, 21 Alessandro Garbisi, 22 Giacomo Da Re, 23 Lorenzo Pani.

Scotland: 15 Tom Jordan, 14 Kyle Steyn, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Sione Tuipulotu (captain), 11 Jamie Dobie, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Ben White, 8 Jack Dempsey, 7 Rory Darge, 6 Matt Fagerson, 5 Grant Gilchrist, 4 Scott Cummings, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 Ewan Ashman, 1 Pierre Schoeman.

Replacements: 16 George Turner, 17 Nathan McBeth, 18 Elliot Millar Mills, 19 Max Williamson, 20 Gregor Brown, 21 George Horne, 22 Adam Hastings, 23 Darcy Graham.

Quotes

Gregor Townsend, Scotland head coach on his contract situation and rumours. “There’s no truth I’ve signed the contract beyond the World Cup, and my focus is on the Scotland team right now and hopefully up to the World Cup. It’s a story that is being put out there to try to disrupt ahead of this game or next week’s game against England.”

Italy captain, Michele Lamaro on his teams’ chances. “We’ve seen when we’re at our best, we can actually compete against anyone,” said Lamaro.

“But at the same time, to be able to be at our best every single time, you have to go a step further.

“So that’s one of our main objectives, especially for the Six Nations campaign.”

Verdict

Italy v Scotland

Italy are backed to get within 9.5 points of Scotland with an upset win quite possible.

Italy +9.5

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Ralph Staniforth is a South African sports journalist, editor and betting writer who has worked in sports media since 2012.

With a background in Sports Science, he has covered a wide range of sports and interviewed leading players and coaches across South African rugby, cricket and football.

His sports betting work covers both South African and international markets, combining his knowledge of sport with extensive experience analysing fixtures, teams, form and betting markets.

Ralph specialises in football and rugby, while also covering cricket, tennis and golf. His work includes match previews, betting tips, betting guides and broader analysis of the sports betting industry.

You can find more from Ralph at Muckrack and LinkedIn.