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PSV vs Borussia Dortmund Predictions - Home Win is Value in the Champions League

Ralph Staniforth

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Last updated: 19 Feb 2024

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Ralph Staniforth 19 Feb 2024

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PSV vs Borussia Dortmund tips for Tuesday’s match
PSV won 20 of their 22 appearances in the Dutch Eredivisie
PSV’s Luuk de Jong is having a great season, scoring 27 goals

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PSV have won 20 of their 22 matches this season in Eredivisie (Getty)

PSV vs Borussia Dortmund Preview

PSV’s results in the Eredivisie have been sensational, while they also played well in the UCL group stages, especially at home (1 win, 2 draws). Borussia Dortmund are struggling in the Bundesliga, so I see value in backing PSV here.

PSV vs Borussia Dortmund Preview
Head to Head
PSV Form
PSV Injuries & Team News
Borussia Dortmund Form
Borussia Dortmund Injuries & Team News

PSV have won 3 of their last 5 home matches (Champions League).
PSV have won 20 of their 22 matches this season (Eredivisie).
PSV’s Luuk de Jong has scored 27 goals in his 35 appearances this season.
Borussia Dortmund have lost 5 of their last 9 away matches (Champions League).

Head to Head

Borussia Dortmund have a 2-0 advantage against PSV with 1 draw in 3 matches.

They last met in January 2017, the game being won by Borussia Dortmund 4-1.

PSV Form

PSV Eindhoven are on a great path of breaking a couple of big records in the Eredivisie where they collected 62 out of possible 66 points in the opening 22 rounds (20 wins, 2 draws), scored 70 and allowed just 10 goals.

The Lightbulbs started this month with a 1-1 draw in derby match against Ajax Amsterdam, but instantly returned to winning ways in the next round by demolishing Volendam 5-1.

They were also victorious last weekend at home against Heracles with Luuk de Jong and Olivier Boscagli finding the net. De Jong is the top scorer this season for PSV, bagging 27 goals in his 35 appearances across competitions.

As for their UEFA Champions League journey so far, PSV lost just one match in the group stages and advanced as 2nd from Group B, behind Arsenal, ahead of Lens and Sevilla. The crucial victory was secured at Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan Stadium, beating Sevilla 3-2 in late November.

PSV Injuries & Team News

Richard Ledezma and Noa Lang are injured.

Borussia Dortmund Form

Even though the odds were not on their side, Borussia Dortmund won the group of death ahead of PSG, AC Milan and Newcastle United, ending the first phase with three victories, two draws and just one defeat.

Victories were secured against the Magpies twice 2-0 and 1-0, and AC Milan 3-1 at San Siro. BVB lost just the opening match to PSG in France 2-0, while claiming one point at home against the same opponent 1-1.

As for their Bundesliga campaign, Edin Terzic’s side underperformed and left the title race early on. They are currently 4th on the table with 41 points, which is 17 points behind the leaders Bayer Leverkusen.

Last weekend Borussia Dortmund were held to a 1-1 draw against Wolfsburg where Niclas Fullkrug broke the deadlock in the first half. They had 62% possession and 12-9 shots, but the Wolves were ahead at expected goals 2.13-1.46.

Borussia Dortmund Injuries & Team News

Felix Nmecha, Salih Ozcan, Julien Duranville, Karim Adeyemi and Sebastian Haller are injured.

Verdict

PSV v Borussia Dortmund

PSV won all their 11 home matches in Eredivisie this season with a stunning 33-5 goal difference. Dortmund lost five of their last nine UCL duels on the road, so there is value on backing in-form Dutch side and their top scorer de Jong.

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