Northland vs Wellington Predictions - Northland to add to Wellington misery

Simon Lewis

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Last updated: 10 Sep 2025

Simon Lewis 10 Sep 2025

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Northland and Wellington are both on 13 points, close to the playoffs.
Northland in better recent form; Wellington struggling despite past dominance.
Northland tipped to cover +3.5 handicap, with an upset win likely.

Expired

Northland backed for victory (Getty Images)

Northland vs Wellington Predictions

These two are level on points on the NPC table with both two points from the playoffs. The winner will take a huge step forward in their chances to qualify for the quarters.

Northland vs Wellington Predictions
Head to Head
Northland Form
Northland Team News
Wellington Form
Wellington Team News

Wellington are slight favourites despite only winning two of their six games. I am backing Northland on +3.5 with a possible upset win at home.

Northland have won 2 of their last 3 matches.
Northland won their last match against Wellington (2022).
Wellington have lost 4 of their last 6 matches.
Wellington lost their last match by 26 points.

Head to Head

Wellington have won six of their last seven matches against Northland. They have not met since 2022 and that match ended 15-6 in Northland’s favour away from home.

Northland Form

Northland come into round seven of the 2025 NPC in 10th place. They have won three and lost three of their six games and are on 13 points.

Northland have yet to win or lose back-to-back this season and will hope to keep that going after suffering a 29-10 away loss to Otago last Friday. Prior to that, Northland lost to Taranaki, beat Southland, lost to Tasman, beat Auckland and beat Hawkes Bay.

Northland Team News

Northland are only two points off the playoffs, so they are fielding their strongest lineup in this game. It is crucial for them against the struggling Wellington side.

Wellington Form

Wellington have been poor this season and are down in 11th place. They are also on 13 points, the same as their opponents.

As defending champions, much was expected for Wellington in 2025 but thus far they have failed to deliver. With just two wins from six games, fortunes need to change fast if they are to stay in the playoff race.

Wellington lost three of their opening four matches before beating Auckland 36-17 at home at the end of August. Many thought that would be the momentum shift they required but last week, away to Hawkes Bay, Wellington suffered a 45-19 loss.

Wellington Team News

Wellington will go into this full-strength after resting players last weekend. This is crucial for them as a win here will likely get them into the top eight by the end of the weekend.

Verdict

Northland v Wellington

Northland are tipped in the +3.5-handicap market with an upset win possible.

Northland +3.5

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Northland Win

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