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Otago vs Auckland Predictions - Otago too good for Auckland at home

Brad Newcomb

Editor

Last updated: 30 Sep 2026

Brad Newcomb 30 Sep 2026

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Otago have won 9 of their last 10 home games and aim for a quarter-final spot.
Auckland sit 10th, losing 5 of their last 7 matches and struggling on the road.
Prediction: Back Otago to cover the -16.5 handicap.

Expired

Otago have regular success at home in the NPC (Getty Images)

Otago dropped points in their bid to secure a home quarter-final in the season-ending NPC play-offs but consistently win at home. Auckland have had a lacklustre campaign, often losing their matches.

Otago have won 5 of their last 7 fixtures.
Otago have won 9 of their last 10 home games.
Otago have won 3 of their last 4 home matches against Auckland.
Auckland have lost 5 of their last 7 fixtures.
Auckland have lost 5 of their last 6 away games.

Head to Head

Auckland have a slight edge over Otago, with five victories to six in 11 meetings in the National Provincial Championship.

Otago Form

Otago scored two converted tries against North Harbour last weekend to lead their hosts 14-10 at half-time.

The away side could only add a converted try to their score in the second half, losing 32-21 away to North Harbour.

Before that disappointing result, the Blue and Gold defeated Southland 41-14 away, lost 19-15 at home to Canterbury, beat Manawatu 29-27 away, Wellington 61-22 at home and Waikato 43-38 at home, then lost 35-24 away to Hawke's Bay before defeating Tasman 57-33 at home, and Counties Manukau 50-21 away.

Otago are fifth in the NPC table with 32 points after nine rounds.

Otago will fancy their chances against a struggling Auckland side that has lost five of their last six away matches and will be aiming to finish their regular season with a victory, with other results going their way to secure a home quarter-final.

Auckland Form

Auckland scored two tries and a conversion in the first half against Manawatu last weekend, going into the break trailing 14-12.

In the second half, Auckland improved their performance, scoring four tries and a conversion, but fell short, losing 40-34 to Manawatu at home.

Earlier in their campaign, the team from Eden Park lost 38-31 to Canterbury away, beat Wellington 34-31 at home, and lost 44-31 at home to Hawke's Bay, 27-19 away to North Harbour, and 22-19 at home to Bay of Plenty before defeating Counties Manukau 43-33 at home, and Tasman 24-22 away.

Auckland are 10th in the National Provincial Championship table with 20 points from nine matches.

Auckland have had a disappointing campaign, failing to reach the season-ending play-offs, and they will have to play well to beat Otago away, as their opponents have won an impressive nine of their last ten home games.

Team News

Otago

Sam Nemec-Vial, Kieran McClea, and Finn Hurley each crossed the try line against North Harbour last weekend.

Cam Millar slotted all three conversions in the match.

Starting XV: Marley Pearce, Nic Souchon, Rohan Wingham, Joseva Tamani, Harry Irving, Will Stodart, Slade McDowall, Christian Lio-Willie (C), Joel Lam, Cameron Millar, Jona Nareki, Jake Te Hiwi, Josh Whaanga, Jae Broomfield, Sam Nemec-Vial

Replacements: Liam Coltman, Aki Seuili, Moana Tatataka, Mitchell Tinnock, Charles Elton, Oliver Thode, Max Hore, Finn Hurley

Auckland

Nathaniel Pole scored a brace against Manawatu last weekend.

Caleb Woodley, Randall Baker, Che Clark, and Siale Pahulu scored a try each against Manawatu last weekend.

Alex Harford and Xavi Taele kicked over a conversion each in the match.

Starting XV: Joshua Fusitu’a (C), Nathaniel Pole, Ofa Tu’ungafasi, Tait Cribb, Harvey Cordukes, Che Clark, Caleb Woodley, Titi Nofagatotoa, James Arscott, Stephen Perofeta, Codemeru Vai, Nikolai Foliaki, Xavi Taele, Payton Spencer, Rico Simpson

Replacements: Jay Fonokalafi, Tito Tupoulotu, Angus Ta’avao-Matau, Randall Baker, Logan Platt, Siaosi Nginginigi, Siale Pahulu, Garouh Basson

Verdict

Otago v Auckland

Otago often win their home matches in the NPC and are tipped to cover the -16.5 handicap in their clash against Auckland.

Otago -16.5

Handicap

@1,91 - 3 Units

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Brad graduated from the University of South Africa with a Bcom-Management Accounting degree and has a financial background.

His love of sport has seen him venture down the road of researching sporting history for the past several years, specifically boxing, cricket and football.

Other sports of particular interest are golf, tennis, horse racing and motorsports.

Additionally, he spends his time researching the military history of his home country of South Africa.

He is an ardent Liverpool supporter and is known to DJ and release music on occasion.