Exeter vs Saracens Predictions - Exeter to prevail against rivals Saracens in winner-takes-all

Brad Newcomb

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Last updated: 2 hours ago

Brad Newcomb 2 hours ago

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Exeter Chiefs are strong at home, with 6 wins in last 8 Premiership matches.
Saracens can reach the playoffs with an away win but have struggled on the road.
Exeter are predicted to cover the -1.5 handicap and secure playoff qualification.

Exeter Chiefs have a solid home record against Saracens (Getty Images)

Exeter have been performing well at home in the Premiership this season and defeated Saracens earlier in their campaign. Saracens can climb into the final play-off place if they beat their hosts, but they have had little success at Exeter in recent seasons.

Exeter have won 6 of their last 8 home games (PREM).
Exeter have won 4 of their last 5 home matches against Saracens (PREM).
Saracens have lost 4 of their last 8 away games (PREM).

Head to Head

Saracens have the advantage with 23 victories to 12 against the Exeter Chiefs, including one draw in 36 meetings.

Exeter defeated Saracens 30-24 away from home earlier this season.

Exeter Form

Exeter produced a solid second-half display against the Leicester Tigers last weekend, winning 35-26 away from home after trailing 14-13 at the break.

The Chiefs have been in great touch at home this season. They defeated Newcastle 38-15, Harlequins 38-0, Gloucester 39-12, the Leicester Tigers 24-10, lost 8-3 to Bristol, beat the Sale Sharks 26-14, and lost 35-28 to Northampton Saints before defeating Bath 35-12.

The Exeter Chiefs are 4th in the Premiership table with 60 points from 17 matches.

The Exeter Chiefs secured vital points to maintain their place in the final play-off position, but they have to win their last game of the season to advance to the knockout rounds. However, they have been in fine form at home this season, and have defeated Saracens four times in their last five fixtures on home soil.

Saracens Form

Saracens kept their hopes alive of reaching the play-offs when they defeated Harlequins 26-12 last weekend, winning 26-12 at home after leading 12-0 at half-time.

The Men in Black have struggled to win away from home in the Premiership this season. They defeated Newcastle 39-17, lost 20-14 to Harlequins, lost 43-31 to Northampton Saints, and beat Gloucester 30-21 before losing 36-28 to Leicester Tigers and 62-15 to Bath.

Sarries are 5th in the Premiership table with 57 points from 17 games.

Saracens have an opportunity to reach the play-offs if they can beat Exeter away from home, as they are only three points behind their hosts going into the final fixture of the regular season; however, they have been prone to inconsistent performances on the road during their campaign.

Team News

Exeter

Director of rugby Rob Baxter has commented that the final few matches of the regular season have been ideal preparation for his team if they want to win trophies again: “I think in a lot of ways it was destined to end like this. Three or four weeks ago. I said to a few people, I just cannot see any way we are going to get to the Saracens game, and it’s not going to be a big game for both of us.

“And that’s how it’s ended. It’s probably great for rugby, and it’s good for us because it concentrates our minds. You know, if we get to a semi-final, it’s going to be away. Do we want to be involved in big games and getting prepared for it. Or do we want dead rubbers?

“For me, having to come to Welford Road and having to get points, playing next week and having to win, I think that’s the best prep for us if we are going to have any chance in a semi-final or final."

Exeter Chiefs have confirmed that 20 players will leave the club following the 2025/26 season. They are: Harry Ascherl, Will Becconsall, Alfie Bell, Kwenzo Blose, Charlie Chapman, Jack Forsythe, Kian Gentry, Len Ikitau, Orson James, Iwan Jenkins, Dan John, Martin Moloney, Khwezi Mona, Sol Moody, Will Rigg, Louie Sinclair, Scott Sio, Christ Tshiunza, Tamati Tua and Rusi Tuima.

Saracens

Mark McCall is set to stand down as the director of rugby at the end of the season, with Brendan Venter taking over the reins.

South African Corné Weilbach has signed for Saracens ahead of 2026/27 season.

Verdict

Exeter v Saracens

Exeter have played their best rugby at home this season and are tipped to cover the -1.5 handicap in their clash against rivals Saracens.

Exeter -1.5

Handicap

@1.91 - 3 Units

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