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Australia vs New Zealand Predictions - Wallabies aim to end on a high in Perth

Ralph Staniforth

Editor

Last updated: 02 Oct 2025

Ralph Staniforth 02 Oct 2025

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New Zealand have won 10 of last 11 vs Australia, including last weekend (33-24).
Australia show improved form but struggle with slow starts.
All Blacks face key injuries (Barrett, de Groot out), adding uncertainty.
Australia backed on +3.5 handicap; possible home upset predicted.

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New Zealand vs Australia Rugby Championship

New Zealand beat Australia by 8 points last weekend. (Getty Images)

Australia vs New Zealand Predictions

This is such a tough game to call. Australia have made poor starts all tournament and another in Perth will be difficult to overturn against the All Blacks. However, if the hosts can stay in touch during the first 40, they have shown how strong they are in the second half.

Australia vs New Zealand Predictions
Head to Head
Australia Form
Australia Injuries & Team News
New Zealand Form
New Zealand Injuries & Team News

I am going to go against the grain here and back the Aussies on +3.5 with a small layout on a home victory.

Australia have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
New Zealand have won 10 of their last 11 matches against Australia.
New Zealand beat Australia by 8 points last weekend.

Head to Head

New Zealand have won 10 of their last 11 matches against Australia. Last week, the All Blacks won 33-24 in Auckland.

Australia Form

Australia come into the final round of Rugby Championship fixtures still in with a chance of claiming the title. However, that chance is very slip as they will require a bonus point victory over the All Blacks and need Argentina to defeat South Africa.

That said, not many would have expected Australia to be in with a shot in the final round. Their improvement from last season has been immense, and any kind of victory on Saturday, title or not, will just further cement them as one of the top nations once again.

There is much improvement still required for the Wallabies though. Their biggest issue throughout the Rugby Championship has been their slow starts. In every game they have allowed their opponents to build big leads, requiring second half comebacks to get victories.

It happened again last weekend against New Zealand. Later in the first half and then for much of the second half, Australia were the better side, they just couldn’t quite get in the lead, eventually losing 33-24 at Eden Park.

Australia Injuries & Team News

The Aussies may tweak their side a bit, but they have produced the goods this Rugby Championship, so I expect them to stick with the core of the side. There may be forced changes with injuries piling up, but that will be known when the team is announced.

New Zealand Form

New Zealand are in a very strange position going into the final round of the Rugby Championship. They are second on 14 points, one behind the Springboks but still have a -6 points difference. Three wins and two defeats have hardly told the full story of their 2025 season to date.

The All Blacks, once the most feared rugby side on the planet, are simply human now. They are showing inconsistency we have seldom seen in the past, not only in results, but during games as well.

Scott Robertson has come under increasing pressure in recent weeks as New Zealand continue to struggle in key areas, particularly under the high ball. After that record loss to South Africa, when the men in black simply capitulated in the final quarter is something many can say they’ve never seen before from the All Blacks.

Yet, despite all of that, there have been plenty of moments of pure class, the usual slick New Zealand handling, resulting in beautiful tries. It just isn’t as regular as we are used to.

Eden Park, a place where they have now won 52 successive matches, has hosted the Springboks and Wallabies this year. On both occasions, New Zealand started superbly, only to fade later and allow the opposition back into the game – on both occasions they held on for the win.

Thus far, New Zealand have won one and lost one to both Argentina and South Africa, there will be calls for Robertson’s head if that stat is repeated on Saturday. Victory will put the All Blacks at the top of the table and if the Springboks slip up in London, the title will return to New Zealand.

New Zealand Injuries & Team News

The All Blacks have suffered two massive blows ahead of this match in Perth. Flyhalf, Beauden Barrett has been ruled out, as has Ethan de Groot. Damian McKenzie is likely to start at flyhalf with Ruben Love covering on the bench.

Verdict

Australia v New Zealand

Australia are backed on the +3.5 handicap with a possible win for the hosts.

Australia +3.5

Handicap

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Australia Win

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