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New Zealand vs South Africa Predictions - Springboks can topple All Blacks in Auckland

Ralph Staniforth

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Last updated: 14 Jul 2023

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Ralph Staniforth 14 Jul 2023

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Watch New Zealand vs South Africa in the Rugby Championship on Saturday (09:00 SAST)
All Blacks have failed to beat the visitors in their last 2 home games
Can the Springboks upset the odds in Auckland?

Expired

South Africa can win in Auckland for the first time since 1937 (Getty images)

New Zealand vs South Africa Preview

New Zealand were expected to be favourites on home soil but being priced at 1.42 looks a bit extreme with a handicap of six points. Considering that South Africa have not lost to the All Blacks in New Zealand on their last two visits, I expect this to be much closer.

New Zealand vs South Africa Preview
Head to Head
New Zealand Recent Form
New Zealand Squad & Team News
South Africa Recent Form
South Africa Squad & Team News

In six of the last 10 matches between these sides, the match has been decided by two or less points. I am backing the visitors to at least get within the handicap with great value on Springbok win.

New Zealand have won their last 8 matches.
South Africa are unbeaten in their last 2 matches against New Zealand.
South Africa have won their last 2 matches.

Head to Head

New Zealand have won four of their last eight matches against South Africa with the Springboks winning three and one draw.

Last year they met twice, both times in South Africa. The hosts won the first one 26-10 before losing the following week 35-23.

New Zealand Recent Form

New Zealand had a very inconsistent 2022 where they produced some very mediocre performances but also showed the best of what they had to offer at times.

This year has, however, started with a bang. Last week the All Blacks traveled to Argentina where they were expected to struggle. Being the first game of the season for both sides, it was a tough one to call.

New Zealand however started like a house on fire and cruised to a 41-12 victory in Mendoza. It was a hostile atmosphere, but the All Blacks were far too good on the day.

They return home for a clash against the Springboks this week. This is notoriously the biggest match of the year for both sides, and this week should be no different.

New Zealand Squad & Team News

New Zealand, like their visitors, have made changes this weekend. After a superb display at flyhalf last weekend, Damian McKenzie misses out on the 23 altogether with Richie Mo’unga coming into the 10 jumper.

New Zealand starting lineup: 15. Beauden Barrett, 14. Will Jordan, 13. Rieko Ioane, 12. Jordie Barrett, 11. Mark Telea, 10. Richie Mo'unga, 9. Aaron Smith, 8. Ardie Savea, 7. Sam Cane (captain), 6. Shannon Frizell, 5. Scott Barrett, 4. Brodie Retallick, 3. Tyrel Lomax, 2. Codie Taylor, 1. Ethan de Groot

Replacements: 16. Samisoni Taukei'aho, 17. Tamaiti Williams, 18. Nepo Laulala, 19. Tupou Vaa'i, 20. Dalton Papali'i, 21. Finlay Christie, 22. Braydon Ennor, 23. Caleb Clarke

South Africa Recent Form

South Africa began their Rugby Championship campaign with a bang on home soil last weekend against Australia. While the Aussies started well, scoring first and were on top for the first quarter hour, the Springboks completely dominated thereafter.

The 43-12 victory was not even as convincing as the scoreline suggests. The Springboks left plenty of points out on the field with some poor errors when they should really have scored.

That said, you can’t take anything away from the performance. Other than the lineouts, the hosts dominated every aspect of play.

New Zealand however offers a completely different challenge, especially in New Zealand. The Boks have not lost there in their last two visits, winning one (2018) and drawing one (2019).

South Africa Squad & Team News

After sending 13 players to New Zealand ahead of time, the Springboks have plenty of changes in their side. Willie le Roux, Lukhanyo Am and the front-row are the only players retained in the starting lineup.

Damian Willemse takes over at flyhalf which means the visitors have no regular goal-kicker. This may be a problem.

South Africa starting lineup: 15. Willie le Roux, 14. Cheslin Kolbe, 13. Lukhanyo Am, 12. Damian de Allende, 11. Makazole Mapimpi, 10. Damian Willemse, 9. Faf de Klerk, 8. Jasper Wiese, 7. Franco Mostert, 6. Kwagga Smith, 5. Lood de Jager, 4. Eben Etzebeth (capt), 3 Frans Malherbe, 2. Bongi Mbonambi, 1. Steven Kitshoff

Replacements: 16. Malcolm Marx, 17. Thomas du Toit, 18. Vincent Koch, 19. RG Snyman, 20. Pieter-Steph du Toit, 21. Duane Vermeulen, 22. Grant Williams, 23. Manie Libbok

Verdict

New Zealand v South Africa

South Africa are backed to cover the +6 handicap and win.

South Africa +6

Handicap

@10/11 - 5 Units

R5,000 bonus

with bonus code NEWBONUS

18+ only. T&Cs apply. New customers only. Email must be verified prior to participation. Min deposit R50. Max bonus amount R5000. Exclusive offer when you use the bet.co.za promo code NEWBONUS.

Bet at Bet.co.za

South Africa Win

Full Time Result

@2/1 - 2 Units

R5,000 bonus

with bonus code NEWBONUS

18+ only. T&Cs apply. New customers only. Email must be verified prior to participation. Min deposit R50. Max bonus amount R5000. Exclusive offer when you use the bet.co.za promo code NEWBONUS.

Bet at Bet.co.za