South Africa vs Italy 1st Test Predictions - Springboks backed to thrash Italy

Ralph Staniforth

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Last updated: 04 Jul 2025

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Ralph Staniforth 04 Jul 2025

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South Africa vs Italy: The Springboks are predicted to win comfortably.
South Africa, reigning world champions, are in strong form and are expected to cover the -40.5 handicap.
Italy is resting key players but remains competitive with experienced players.

South Africa have won 15 of their 16 matches against Italy. (Getty Images)

South Africa vs Italy Predictions

South Africa are huge favourites and should cruise to victory in this one. They have picked a very strong side while Italy are resting some key players. I am backing the world champions to cover the -40.5 handicap.

South Africa vs Italy Predictions
Head to Head
South Africa Form
South Africa Injuries & Team News
Italy Form
Italy Injuries & Team News

South Africa have won 15 of their 16 matches against Italy.
South Africa have won 10 of their last 11 matches.
South Africa have covered the -40.5 handicap in their last 2 matches against Italy.
South Africa scored 50+ points in their last match.
Italy have lost 4 of their last 6 matches.

Head to Head

South Africa have won 15 of their 16 matches against Italy. Italy won 20-18 in 2016 but that lost the subsequent three matches by quite big margins. They last met in 2022, a game South Africa won 63-21.

South Africa Form

South Africa are the reigning world champions and Rugby Championship champions. Ranked no.1 in the world puts a target on their back ahead of the 2027 Rugby World Cup but their form has thus far backed up their dominance.

This is the first official international match of the season for the Springboks, however, they did play an unofficial test last week against a strong Barbarians side. It was a dominant performance by the world champions though, winning the game 54-7 in Cape Town.

This two-match series against Italy is crucial for the Rassie Erasmus and the players as they prepare for the Rugby Championship in a couple of months. We may see some new faces over the next three weeks.

South Africa Injuries & Team News

Rassie Erasmus is not holding any punches with his team selection. Vincent Tshituka makes his official debut while Morne van den Berg starts at nine. The rest of the squad is littered with caps and World Cup medals.

Italy Form

Italy are fast becoming a real force in world rugby. They are no longer the minnows they were for a rather long time, consistently competitive against bigger sides and have a few wins to boot.

The Italians only won one Six Nations game this season, beating Wales 22-15 at home. They ran Ireland close, losing 22-15 while France thrashed them.

Last week, Italy played a test against Namibia, winning 73-6 but the real business starts on Saturday.

Italy Injuries & Team News

Italy are not at full-strength for this tour, opting to rest a few key players. However, there are still some very experienced names in the side. They have made seven changes from last week’s win over Namibia.