Japan vs Wales Predictions - Japan backed to get close against Wales

Ralph Staniforth

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Last updated: 02 Jul 2025

Ralph Staniforth 02 Jul 2025

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Japan vs Wales in rugby set for Saturday.
Japan has lost 4 of last 5 matches; last beat Wales in 2013.
Wales on a 17-match losing streak, struggling in recent performance.

Expired

Japan have conceded 50+ points in 3 of their last 4 matches. (Getty Images)

Japan vs Wales Predictions

This should be a very interesting encounter on Saturday. Wales are in horrible form, but they aren’t missing many players to the B+I Lions and Japan are not having a great time of it either. However, conditions on Saturday are forecast to be very hot, which will suit the hosts.

I am backing both teams to tire as the game wears on with Japan to get within the +9.5 handicap. A home win could also offer some value.

Japan vs Wales Predictions
Head to Head
Japan Form
Japan Injuries & Team News
Wales Form
Wales Injuries & Team News

Japan have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
Japan have conceded 50+ points in 3 of their last 4 matches.
Wales have won 13 of their 14 matches against Japan.
Wales have lost their last 17 matches.

Head to Head

These two sides have met 14 times with Wales winning 13 and Japan once. The sole Japanese win came in 2013 in Tokyo, a game strangely enough that had Eddie Jones as head coach.

Japan Form

This will be Japan’s first official test match of the 2025 calendar year. They last played on their Northern Hemisphere tour in 2024.

For the last decade, Japan have continued to improve as a rugby power, however, they have dropped somewhat after their spectacular run to the 2019 Rugby World Cup quarterfinal. They still possess plenty of ability and with Eddie Jones back at the helm, the fans will hope that their 2015-2019 form can be replicated.

Last year, Jan conceded 50+ points to New Zealand, France and England during November. They did manage one win against Uruguay. At home, they will hope to challenge or even beat a Welsh side struggling for confidence.

Japan Injuries & Team News

Japan players will be fresh after their league season ended almost a month ago. They will be rearing to go against a struggling Welsh side who certainly won’t be accustomed to the heat that faces them on Saturday.

Wales Form

Wales are perhaps at their lowest ebb since rugby turned professional in the mid-90s. They have lost an incredible 17 straight fixtures and finished bottom of the Six Nations table this year.

The last time Wales won a game of rugby was during the pools stage of the 2023 Rugby World Cup. They will want to end that unwanted streak against Japan this weekend.

A 2-0 series win in Japan will not end the Welsh slump, but it could give the players some confidence ahead of a few bigger fixtures at the end of the year.

Wales Injuries & Team News

The one positive for Wales in this miserable 17-match losing streak is that only a couple of their players made the British & Irish Lions squad. That means they have a close to full strength squad available for this tour. Conditions in Japan is going to be tough though with searing mid-afternoon heat set for Saturday.

Verdict

Japan v Wales

Japan are backed to get within the +9.5 handicap with a possibility of a win.

Japan +9.5

Handicap

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Japan Win

Result

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