Quilter Nations Series Predictions & Tips (15 & 16 November 2025)

Wales vs Japan Predictions - Brave Blossoms to challenge Wales

Ralph Staniforth

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Last updated: 1 hour ago

Ralph Staniforth 1 hour ago

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Wales has won only 1 of their last 19 matches.
Japan has been competitive against strong teams recently.
Japan staying within a 12.5-point handicap is likely.

Japan can challenge Wales in Cardiff (Getty Images)

Wales vs Japan Predictions

Japan are playing some decent rugby but have come up against much stronger sides in Ireland and South Africa in the last two weeks. They are certainly capable of taking Wales to the wire.

Wales vs Japan Predictions
Head to Head
Wales Form
Wales Injuries & Team News
Japan Form
Japan Injuries & Team News

I am backing Japan to get within the 12.5 handicap. A tiny layout on an upset win is also a possibility.

Wales have lost 18 of their last 19 matches.
Wales conceded 50+ points at home last weekend.
Japan have lost their last 4 matches.
Japan have conceded 102 points in their last 2 matches.

Head to Head

Wales lead 2-1 in their last three matches against Japan. They played a two-match series in July this year which finished 1-1.

Wales Form

Wales form has just continued to plummet, game after game. They have one win in their last 19 games and that victory came against Japan in July this year.

In July, Wales toured Japan, lost the first Test 24-19 before winning the second 31-22 to end their losing streak. However, last weekend, the Welsh were comfortably beaten at home 52-28 by Argentina.

Wales are favourites with the line at 12.5 but if they don’t get off to a good start, I’m worried about how the crowd will put more pressure on the side. With the space Wales are in at the moment, they could implode in such a situation.

While I do believe Wales will have enough to win, the margin may be quite tight on Saturday afternoon.

Wales Injuries & Team News

Steve Tandy has decided to give returning winger, Louis Rees-Zammit a start. Dewi Lake starts at hooker and will captain while Nicky Smith is alongside his captain in the front row.

Japan Form

Japan are starting to show some good signs under Eddie Jones. The Australian will want his team to put in a big performance on Saturday as a victory, coupled with another next weekend, will see the Brave Blossoms possibly climb the world rankings.

Japan lost 19-15 to Australia at the end of October before being hammered 61-7 by South Africa at Wembley. Last week, the Japanese were very impressive in a 41-10 defeat to Ireland.

The scoreline doesn’t quite tell the full story of the match and a similar performance on Saturday will put Wales under immense pressure.

Japan Injuries & Team News

Eddie Jones is likely to make a few alterations for this fixture. He would have targeted this is a potential victory before the tour even began.

Verdict

Wales v Japan

I am backing Japan to get within the 12.5 handicap while an upset win remains a possiblity.

Japan +12.5

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Japan Win

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