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Scotland vs Italy Predictions - Value on Italy to get close

ralph-staniforth
Ralph Staniforth
Editor
Last updated: 30 Jan 2025

The upcoming match between Scotland and Italy is expected to be competitive. Historically, Italy has been a strong opponent against Scotland, often keeping the scoreline close. Scotland has a solid recent track record, with seven wins out of eight matches, but Italy's recent performances, including a win against Scotland, indicate they could be within the 18.5-point handicap. Both teams are likely to retain their core squads, with Italy improving significantly over the last 24 months. Expect a thrilling encounter.

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Ralph Staniforth 30 Jan 2025
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  • Italy has been competitive in recent matches versus Scotland.
  • Scotland won 7 of their last 8 matches, only losing to South Africa.
  • Italy backed to stay within an 18.5-point margin
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Italy vs New Zealand Rugby November 2024
Italy to show competitive side against the Scots (Getty Images)

Scotland vs Italy Preview


Italy have a history of being competitive against Scotland, both home and away. I am backing Italy to get within the 18.5 handicap.
  • Scotland vs Italy Preview
  • Head to Head
  • Scotland Form
  • Scotland Injuries & Team News
  • Italy Form
  • Italy Injuries & Team News

  • Scotland have won 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Scotland have won 13 of their last 14 matches against Italy.
  • Italy have lost 2 of their last 3 matches.
  • Italy have won or lost by less than 18.5 points in 8 of their last 9 games against Scotland.

Head to Head


The Scots have won 13 of their last 14 games against Italy, many of which were quite close. Last season, the Italians beat Scotland by two points in Rome.

Scotland Form


Scotland did very well in the 2024 Six Nations before a defeat on the penultimate weekend to Italy put them back on the table. They also ran Ireland close in Dublin on in the final week.

Since the Six Nations of 2024, Scotland have won seven of their eight matches, their only defeat coming to South Africa in November last year. However, Scotland’s mid-year tour to the Americas did inflate their stocks with four comfortable wins over tier two nations.

When the Scots welcomes the Southern Hemisphere in November, they beat Fiji, Portugal and Australia. Their only defeat came in a 32-15 loss to South Africa.

Scotland Injuries & Team News


Scotland have confidence after a strong showing in 2024 where they did well in the Six Nations. There shouldn’t be much deviation from that side.

Italy Form


Italy are a vastly improved side over the last 24 months. After a very disappointing 2023 Rugby World Cup, the Italians have come together for some amazing results.

During the 2024 Six Nations, Italy lost by 36 points to Ireland, but other than that, no one ran away with a game. England beat Italy by three points while the Italians drew in France before beating Scotland at home and Wales away.

In November, Italy produced a very poor performance in a heavy home defeat to Argenitna before bouncing back with a win over Georgia. They then lost their last game, 29-11 to New Zealand but were very competitive throughout.

Italy Injuries & Team News


Italy will stick with a similar side to that which featured last year although current form will play a role n selection.

Verdict

Italy have always been competitive against Scotland with only one of their last nine games ending in defeat by more than 18.5 points. I am backing Italy to cover that margin.

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