Waratahs vs Reds Predictions - Waratahs backed for victory against Reds at home in Super Rugby derby

Ralph Staniforth

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Last updated: 11 Feb 2026

Ralph Staniforth 11 Feb 2026

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Waratahs solid at home last season, aiming for a strong start.
Reds have historically dominated but struggle away.
New lineup changes could impact game outcomes.

Expired

Waratahs can win at home against Reds (Getty Images)

Waratahs vs Reds Predictions

This is a tricky early season game to call. The Reds are slight favourites given their dominant record against the Waratahs; however, the Reds were poor on the road last season while the Waratahs were very good at home, mostly. I am leaning towards the hosts to get the win against the odds.

Waratahs vs Reds Predictions
Head to Head
Waratahs Form
Reds Form
Waratahs vs Reds Lineups & News

Waratahs have come within 4 points of the Reds in their last 4 home matches.
Reds have won 8 of their last 9 matches against the Waratahs.
Reds have lost 4 of their last 5 away matches in Super Rugby.

Head to Head

The Reds have been victorious in eight of their last nine matches against the Waratahs in Super Rugby.

Waratahs Form

The Waratahs were solid last season, a vast improvement on the few seasons before. At home, the Tahs’ claimed some big wins as well where they won their first five home fixtures of the campaign.

Unfortunately, away from home the Sydney outfit struggled, failing to win all season. Their season ended poorly with five losses in their final six matches.

However, looking at this season, the Waratahs will once again look to make a strong start, particularly at home, which proved to be a fortress in 2025.

Reds Form

The Reds finished the 2025 Super Rugby campaign in fifth place, a decent campaign by all metrics. While they were knocked out in the first round of knockout, they will be confident of at least repeating that feat this season.

Concerning for the Reds is that they have only managed one win in their last five away games (all last season). If they hope to improve on that fifth-place finish in 2026, they will need to get some results on the road.

Fortunately for the Reds, they have a strong record in this Aussie derby with eight wins in their last nine games.

Waratahs vs Reds Lineups & News

Waratahs: 15 James Hendren, 14 Harry Potter, 13 Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, 12 Joey Walton, 11 Max Jorgensen, 10 Lawson Creighton, 9 Jake Gordon, 8 Pete Samu, 7 Charlie Gamble, 6 clem Halaholo, 5 Miles Amatosero, 4 Matt Philip (captain), 3 Dan Botha, 2 Ethan Dobbins, 1 Tom Lambert.

Replacements: 16 Folau Fainga’a, 17 Isaac Kailea, 18 Siosifa Amone, 19 Angus Blyth, 20 Leafi Talataina, 21 Teddy Wilson, 22 Jake Debreczeni, 23 Triston Reilly.

Waratahs head coach, Dan McKellar has selected Jimmy Hendren at fullback ahead of Australian international, Andrew Kellerway. The coach did confirm that it is mostly because the Aussie internationals had a long 2025 and will need to take some time to get back up to speed.

That said, Max Jorgensen, new signing, Harry Potter and Joseph Aukuso-Suaalii all start in the backline.

Reds: 15 Jock Campbell, 14 Lachie Anderson, 13 Josh Flook, 12 Hunter Paisami, 11 Tim Ryan, 10 Harry McLaughlin-Phillips, 9 Louis Werchon, 8 Vaiuta Latu, 7 Fraser McReight (captain), 6 Joe Brial, 5 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 4 Josh Canham, 3 Zane Nonggorr, 2 Matt Faessler, 1 Aidan Ross.

Replacements: 16 Richie Asiata, 17 George Blake, 18 Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, 19 Seru Uru, 20 John Bryant, 21 James Martens, 22 Finn Mackay, 23 Xavier Rubens

The Reds have an overflow of talent for the flyhalf berth this year with Carter Gordon and Ben Volavola added to the mix. Tom Lynagh remains in the squad as well.

Verdict

Waratahs v Reds

I am backing the Waratahs to get the win at home.

Waratahs Win

Result

@2.30 - 3 Units

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