Esperance vs Mamelodi Sundowns Predictions - Downs to Leave Tunisia with First Leg Draw
The match between Esperance and Mamelodi Sundowns is set to be a tightly contested affair. Esperance boasts a strong form, with only two losses in their last 32 outings and an impressive defensive record at home. Similarly, Mamelodi Sundowns are positioned well in their local league, although they've struggled in recent away matches in the CAF competition. As both teams prepare for this high-stakes encounter, a low-scoring draw seems to be the most probable outcome given their current form and head-to-head history.
- Esperance have lost only 2 of their last 32 matches.
- Mamelodi Sundowns are winless in their last 4 CAF away matches.
- Predictions suggest a low-scoring draw in their upcoming match.
Esperance and Sundowns backed to draw in the CAF Champions League on Sunday (Getty Images).
Esperance vs Mamelodi Sundowns Predictions
A very tight and cagey first leg is predicted. I don’t see Sundowns winning this match, but they have enough to leave North Africa with a low-scoring draw.
Key Stats – Tight Affair to End Level
- Esperance are undefeated in 30 of their last 32 matches.
- Esperance have seen Under 2.5 goals in their last 6 home matches.
- Mamelodi Sundowns are winless in their last 4 away CAF matches (2 draws, 2 losses).
- Mamelodi Sundowns have seen Under 2.5 goals in their last 5 away matches.
Head to Head – Two Wins in 10 for Sundowns
Esperance hold a 4-2 lead over Sundowns across ten clashes with four draws.
The clubs last met in April 2025 as Esperance drew 0-0 in South Africa under current Sundowns coach Miguel Cardoso. That result gave them a 1-0 aggregate victory to reach the CAF Champions League final.
ES Tunis Form – Two Losses in 32 Matches
Esperance have lost just two of their last 32 matches in all competitions. They’re currently on a run of eight wins in their last ten matches.
After a 1-0 league win at home to Marsa, they faced Al Ahly in the CAF Champions League quarter-finals. A 1-0 home win was followed by a 3-2 win in Cairo to progress 4-2 on aggregate.
ES Tunis smashed WS Hamma 5-0 away in the Tunisian Cup. Last Saturday, they drew 0-0 at Etoile Sahel as they lost a two-point gap in the league table.
Sundowns Top of the PSL – Lost Last CAF Away Match
Sundowns have won ten PSL matches in a row. They reached the CAF Champions League semis by knocking out Stade Malien in the last round.
A superb 3-0 home win over Stade Malin was followed by a 3-1 league win vs Marumo Gallants. They lost 2-0 away to Stade Malien in the second leg, but progressed on aggregate.
Downs dominated Chippa United in a 4-1 home league win. In midweek, they allowed just three shots as they ground out a 1-0 win at Durban City.
Predicted Lineups & Team News
Esperance (4-1-4-1): Ben Said; Keita, Jelassi, Tougai, Ben Hamida; Ogbelu; Boualia, Teka, Konate, Diarra; Danho.
Esperance coach Patrice Beaumelle has no injuries or suspensions to deal. Algerian centre back Mohamed Amine Tougai is a key man and scored twice in the quarter-finals.
It’s not clear if they will use a back three or a back four. They used the former in the first leg vs Al Ahly before playing a back four in Egypt.
Mamelodi Sundowns (4-2-3-1): Williams; Mudau, Kekana, Ndamane, Lunga; Mokoena, Adams; Morena, Sales, Matthews; Rayners.
Coach Miguel Cardoso is without left back Aubrey Modiba due to suspension. Divine Lunga is set to deputise.
Mothobi Mvala is injured in defence. Nuno Santos and Monnapule Saleng should shake off knocks to make the squad.
Verdict
I'm backing a draw in the first leg.
Draw
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@2.50 - 3 Units
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Esperance 1-1 Sundowns
Correct Score
@5.50 - 1 Unit
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