Bundesliga Predictions - 21 December 2025, Matchday 15

Simon Lewis

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Last updated: 20 Dec 2025

Simon Lewis 20 Dec 2025

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All three sides in the drop-zone are in action on Sunday.
It’s an early relegation shootout between Mainz and St. Pauli.
Second-bottom Heidenheim take on leaders Bayern Munich.

Expired

Nelson Weiper of Mainz against Samsunspor FC (Getty Images).

Mainz vs St. Pauli

Two sides in the dropzone cross swords in a match both will be desperate to win as the match offers the chance for a six-point swing in the relegation battle. Last season Mainz beat St. Pauli in both their matches, cranking up five goals to nil across the two clashes. This season they have both lost nine of their 14 matches in the Bundesliga, but the difference is in the wins - St. Pauli have three, while Mainz have just the one victory.

Both sides are undefeated in their last three matches, but St. Pauli have lost six of their last 10, while Mainz have four defeats in 10. St. Pauli have lost five of their last seven on the road, while Mainz have won three, drawn two and lost two of their last seven at home.

Considering Mainz pulled off a 2-2 away draw against leaders Bayern Munich, followed by a win in Europe mid-week, I’m backing the home side to snatch the three points in a tight, low-scoring affair.

Heidenheim vs Bayern Munich

Heidenheim and Bayern have met five times in the past, with Bayern netting four or more goals in a match four times in each of their four wins. The other match was won 3-2 by Heidenheim towards the end of the 2023/24 season. Bayern have lost just one of their last 27 matches, winning 24 and drawing two.

Their single loss was a 3-1 away defeat to high-flying Arenal, but their last match saw them draw 2-2 at home to bottom-of-the-table Mainz after a four-match winning streak. Bayern have lost two and draw one of their last 15 matches on the road, while Heidenheim’s home form is disastrous.

Heidenheim have lost five, drawn two and won three of their last 10 home matches, so there’s little to suggest they might have the edge over Bayern. With their goal difference of plus-40, I see Bayern bouncing back with a big win against a Heidenheim side with the worst goal difference in the Bundesliga (minus-17).

Bundesliga table (as at 19 December 2025)

Pos	Team	Pld	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bayern Munich	14	12	2	0	40	38
2	Borussia Dortmund	15	9	5	1	14	32
3	RB Leipzig	14	9	2	3	13	29
4	Bayer Leverkusen	14	8	2	4	11	26
5	TSG Hoffenheim	14	8	2	4	9	26
6	VfB Stuttgart	14	8	1	5	3	25
7	Eintracht Frankfurt	14	7	3	4	0	24
8	Union Berlin	14	5	3	6	−4	18
9	SC Freiburg	14	4	5	5	−2	17
10	1. FC Köln	14	4	4	6	−1	16
11	Borussia Mönchengladbach	15	4	4	7	−6	16
12	Werder Bremen	14	4	4	6	−10	16
13	VfL Wolfsburg	14	4	3	7	−4	15
14	Hamburger SV	14	4	3	7	−9	15
15	FC Augsburg	14	4	1	9	−11	13
16	FC St. Pauli	14	3	2	9	−13	11
17	1. FC Heidenheim	14	3	2	9	−17	11
18	Mainz 05	14	1	4	9	−13	7

Verdict

German Bundesliga

Mainz to pull off a valuable win over St. Pauli, while Heidenheim to suffer at the hands of Bayern Munich.

Mainz vs St. Pauli win

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