T20 Cricket World Cup Final Winner Predictions - New Zealand ranked least likely to lift the World Cup in 2026

Simon Lewis

Editor

Last updated: 3 hours ago

Simon Lewis 3 hours ago

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New Zealand are the rank outsiders to win the World Cup, despite their powerful top-order batting line-up.
The current odds on New Zealand winning the tournament are set at 6.50.
The semi-finals are set for the 4th and 5th of March, with the final to be played on Sunday 8 March.

Finn Allen pulls against England (Getty Images).

2026 T20 World Cup Journey
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2026 T20 World Cup Journey

New Zealand came into the World Cup in good form and with their key players performing well. They made it out of a tough Group D by beating Afghanistan (5 wickets), the UAE (10 wickets) and Canada (8 wickets).

The Black Caps came seriously unstuck against one of the tournament favourites, South Africa, losing by seven wickets.

Their journey through the Super 8s started badly, with their opener against Pakistan rained-out. They put valuable points on the board by beating Sri Lanka by 61 runs, only to lose to England by four wickets in their final match of the stage.

New Zealand had to wait for the result of Pakistan’s match against Sri Lanka to find out if they had done enough to earn a place in the semi-finals. Pakistan won their match to finish level on points with New Zealand, but the Kiwis went through thanks to a superior net run rate and will face South Africa in their semi-final.

World Cup Stars

A lot was expected of openers Tim Seifert and Finn Allen, but they have yet to fully fire. Allen scored 84* in the opener, followed by respectable but abbreviated cameos of 31, 21, 23 and 29 in his next four innings. The semis and possible final are when he needs to score big to put New Zealand squarely in the frame.

Seifert started with hard-hitting innings of 65 and 89*, but after that could only muster scores of 13, 6, 8 and 35. His form will also have a big bearing on New Zealand’s fortunes in the rest of the competition. Captain Glenn Phillips is the only other batter in their squad to pass 150 runs ahead of the semi-final. Phillips has scored 176 runs (ave 44.00) at a strike-rate of 160.00.

Rachin Ravindra is the surprise bowling hero for his side, picking up nine wickets after hauls of 4/27 and 3/19 in his last two games. Ravindra has also scored 59* and 32 in his last three innings.

Matt Henry is their 2nd top wicket-taker with seven wickets at 21.71 (econ 7.41) and best figures of 2/3. Lockie Ferguson is the only other New Zealand bowler with more than three wickets. Ferguson has taken five wickets at an economy rate of 8.75.