Manawatu vs Southland Stags Predictions - Manawatu tipped to edge Southland Stags in NPC clash

Nigel Williams

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Last updated: 05 Aug 2026

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Nigel Williams 05 Aug 2026

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Manawatu slight favourites due to home-ground record vs Southland.
Both teams have lost their last five matches.
Best bet: Manawatu to cover the -7.5 handicap at home.

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Manawatu tipped to edge Southland Stags in NPC clash (Getty Images)

Manawatu vs Southland Stags Predictions

Manawatu are slight favourites given their historical home-ground dominance in this specific matchup. My best bet is Manawatu to cover the -7.5 handicap at home.

Manawatu have lost their last 5 matches.
Manawatu lost 40–14 to Northland in their last match.
Manawatu have won 3 of the last 5 matches against Southland Stags.
Southland Stags have lost their last 5 matches.
Southland Stags lost 41–14 to Otago in their last match.

Head-to-Head

Manawatu have won three of the last five meetings against Southland Stags.

Manawatu Form

Manawatu lost 40–14 to Northland in an NPC opening match at Semenoff Stadium. Northland led 21–14 at halftime and pulled away in the second half, scoring six tries to secure a comfortable bonus-point win.

Manawatu have had a poor recent run of form, losing their last five matches. They lost to Auckland (52-29), Bay of Plenty (55-19), Counties Manukau (48-24), Hawke's Bay (38-10), and Northland (40-14).

Manawatu finished 11th in the NPC 2025 campaign with 18 points, losing seven of their 10 matches.

Manawatu Injuries & Team News

Starting XV: 1 Malakai Hala-Ngatai, 2 Chris Finau, 3 Logan Wallace, 4 Taine Roiri, 5 Rob Harley, 6 TK Howden, 7 Mosese Bason, 8 Brayden Iose, 9 Jordi Viljoen, 10 Reece MacDonald, 11 John Tapueluelu, 12 James Tofa, 13 Kyle Brown, 14 Taniela Filimone, 15 Drew Wild.

Replacements: 16 Alani Fakava, 17 Joe Gavigan, 18 Feleti Sae-Ta'ufo'ou, 19 Reuben Allen, 20 Rory Woods, 21 Doug Philipson, 22 George Worboys, 23 Ngani Laumape.

Southland Stags Form

Southland were thrashed 41–14 by Otago in Round 1 of the NPC at Rugby Park in Invercargill. Southland were dominated by an Otago side in the opening-round clash, who raced to a 29–7 halftime lead and securing a comfortable bonus-point victory in their historic domestic rivalry.

Southland have had a terrible run of form, losing their last five matches. They lost to Counties Manukau (64-10), Wellington (75-19), Tasman Mako (55-38), North Harbour (15-14), and Otago (41-14).

Southland finished 13th in the NPC 2025 campaign with 16 points, losing seven of their 10 matches.

Southland Stags Injuries & Team News

Starting XV: 1 Jack Sexton, 2 Jack Taylor, 3 Sef Fa'agase, 4 Mitch Dunshea, 5 Ale Aho, 6 Clem Halaholo, 7 Sean Withy, 8 Konrad Toleafoa, 9 Nic Shearer, 10 Jimmy Taylor, 11 Jay Reihana, 12 Scott Gregory, 13 Hayata Taniyama, 14 Michael Manson, 15 Glen Vaihu.

Replacements: 16 Jayden Henderson, 17 Jack Barrett, 18 Paula Latu, 19 Kasaloma Ahokovi, 20 Sam Fischli, 21 Charlie Marsh, 22 Mika Muliaina, 23 Alfred Nonu.

Verdict

Manawatu v Southland Stags

Manawatu are slight favourites given their historical home-ground dominance in this specific matchup. My best bet is Manawatu to cover the -7.5 handicap at home.

Manawatu -7.5

Handicap

@1,91 - 1 Unit

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