Hawkes Bay vs Wellington Predictions - Wellington struggles to continue in NPC

Simon Lewis

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Last updated: 03 Sep 2025

Simon Lewis 03 Sep 2025

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Hawkes Bay have 3 wins and 2 losses in the opening five rounds (6th place).
Wellington, defending champions, sit 9th with 2 wins and inconsistent defense.
Prediction favors Hawkes Bay to cover -6.5 at home despite recent losses.

Expired

Hawkes Bay have won 3 of their last 5 matches. (Getty Images)

Hawkes Bay vs Wellington Predictions

Wellington have been far from the dominant 2024 side this season. Despite Hawkes Bay coming into this fixture off the back of two defeats, I am backing them to cover -6.5 at home.

Hawkes Bay vs Wellington Predictions
Head to Head
Hawkes Bay Form
Wellington Form

Hawkes Bay have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
Hawkes Bay have lost their last 2 matches.
Wellington have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.

Head to Head

Three of the last five matches between these sides have seen Wellington come out on top. Last season, Wellington won 46-28 at home, but in 2023 Hawkes Bay beat Wellington twice.

Hawkes Bay Form

Hawkes Bay have had a strange opening five rounds of the 2025 NPC. They have won three and lost two of their games and currently hold sixth place on the table.

They thrashed Counties Manukau in round one and then beat Otago 27-21 away from home in round two. Round three saw another win, this time by 14 points against North Harbour.

However, after a dominating opening three rounds, Hawkes Bay lost 26-7 at home to Canterbury but the real surprise came last weekend when they suffered a 27-22 loss at Northland.

Wellington Form

Wellington are the defending NPC champions but have looked a shadow of the 2024 team. They are struggling with consistency and while they’ve lost some games they perhaps should have won, their defence has not quite been up to standard.

Wellington are currently ninth with just two wins from five but they have picked up five bonus points thus far. In round one, Wellington lost out to Canterbury at home but bounced back to beat Waikato 35-24 away the following week.

However, in round three, Wellington lost 46-41 at home to Otago and then inexplicably went down 38-28 to Manawatu in round four. Last weekend Wellington managed to find some form though as they defeated Auckland 36-17 at home.

Verdict

Hawkes Bay v Wellington

Hawkes Bay are backed to cover the -6.5 handicap at home against Wellington in the NPC.

Hawkes Bay -6.5

Handicap

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