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Wales vs South Africa Predictions - Springboks backed for comfortable victory over Wales

Ralph Staniforth

Editor

Last updated: 27 Nov 2025

Ralph Staniforth 27 Nov 2025

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South Africa predicted to win by 41+ points against Wales.
Wales has lost 19 out of their last 21 games.
Both teams are missing key players, but South Africa's depth remains strong.

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Springboks to win big in Cardiff (Getty Images)

Wales vs South Africa Predictions

Both teams are missing several key players but the Springboks depth is quite incredible. I am backing a convincing win in Cardiff by 41+ points.

Wales have lost 19 of their last 21 matches.
South Africa have won their last 7 matches.
South Africa have won 7 of their last 8 matches against Wales.
South Africa have won their last 3 matches against Wales by 33, 28 & 36 points.

Head-to Head

The Springboks have won seven of their last eight matches against Wales.

Wales Form

Wales have suffered a complete collapse since losing the 2023 Rugby World Cup quarter-final to Argentina. In 21 matches since, they have won just twice in 21 fixtures, both victories coming against Japan.

The Welsh beat Japan in the second Test in July this year, sharing the series 1-1. They beat the same opposition a fortnight ago with the final kick of the game.

Other than that, Wales have struggled with a relatively young and inexperienced squad. Steve Tandy, now in charge of the Welsh side has already started making changes, and while they make take time to be fruitful, the positive signs are there.

After losing to Argentina in their first Autumn match, the 52-28 scoreline at least showed some attacking improvement. They beat Wales by a point a week later.

Last weekend was probably Wales best performance for some time as they went down 52-26 to the All Blacks. The Welsh looked quite cohesive on attack, testing the New Zealanders defence regularly, but defensively they have a lot of work to do.

The worry this coming week will be getting possession and some front-foot ball against a South African side that has the forwards to suffocate them.

South Africa Form

South Africa began their year with comfortable wins over Italy and Georgia in July. The start of the Rugby Championship wasn't as smooth, losing to Australia at Ellis Park for this first time since the 60s.

The following week, the Springboks bounced back to beat the Wallabies but then suffered a 24-17 loss at Eden Park against New Zealand. However, Rassie Erasmus' side bounced back in spectacular fashion a week later, handing the All Blacks their heaviest ever defeat (43-10) in Wellington.

Two victories over Argentina followed as South Africa secured their second successive Rugby Championship title. The November European tour began with a 61-10 victory over Japan before a very impressive 32-17 success against France, despite playing with 14 men for the entire second half.

A week later, Erasmus' side were down to 14 again in the 11th minute against Italy, but the Springboks again pulled through, winning 32-14.

Last week saw Ireland host the Springboks. The game everyone had been waiting for as South Africa had lost four of their last five. However, the Springboks annihilated Ireland at the scrum, winning penalties in the double figures, and while the 24-13 scoreline does not quite show the dominance, Ireland were never really in the game.

Wales vs South Africa Lineups & Team News

Wales: 15 Blair Murray, 14 Ellis Mee, 13 Joe Roberts, 12 Joe Hawkins, 11 Rio Dyer, 10 Dan Edwards, 9 Kieran Hardy, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Alex Mann, 6 Taine Plumtree, 5 Rhys Davies, 4 Ben Carter, 3 Keiron Assiratti, 2 Dewi Lake, 1 Gareth Thomas.

Replacements: 16 Brodie Coghlan, 17 Danny Southworth, 18 Christian Coleman, 19 James Ratti, 20 Morgan Morse, 21 Reuben Morgan-Williams, 22 Callum Sheedy, 23 Ben Thomas.

Wales have lost several players to clubs as this match falls outside of the international window. Worryingly for the hosts, many of the players who are not with the squad any longer are ones who have performed recently.

South Africa: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Ethan Hooker, 13 Damian de Allende, 12 Andre Esterhuizen, 11 Canan Moodie, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Morne van den Berg, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Franco Mostert, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Jean Kleyn, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Johan Grobbelaar, 1 Gerhard Steenekamp.

Steve Tandy on what he expects to face against South Africa: "They are incredible. What they are doing with the hybrid player as well and to see how Rassie goes about his selections on the bench and how they use that. They are stacked really deep."

Replacements: 16 Bongi Mbonambi, 17 Zachary Porthen, 18 Asenathi Ntlabakanye, 19 Eben Etzebeth, 20 Marco van Staden, 21 Ben-Jason Dixon, 22 Kwagga Smith, 23 Cobus Reinach.

Rassie Erasmus has also a lot many players to club rugby this weekend but can still field a side with several World Cup winners. They have opted for a 7-1 bench split with a new centre pairing of Andre Esterhuizen and Damian de Allende.

Rassie Erasmus speaking about the players missing from the squad: "It's the same for Wales. You can't get away from the rule there that guys may not play outside the window. We will now go and see how things stand with the injuries."

Verdict

Wales v South Africa

South Africa are backed to cover the -40.5 handicap against Wales. I am also looking at Ethan Hooker in the try scoring markets.

South Africa -40.5

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