Springboks vs All Blacks Tour Preview - New Zealand need strong start to upset the odds

Ralph Staniforth

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Last updated: 1 hour ago

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Ralph Staniforth 1 hour ago

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Springboks enter as favorites, backed by recent World Cup wins and home advantage.
First test at Ellis Park is pivotal for All Blacks - win or risk losing the series.
Set piece and tight-five battle likely to decide the series outcome.

Springboks have won five of their last six matches against New Zealand (Getty Images)

The Rugby's Greatest Rivalry Tour is mere days away from kick off and undoubtedly one of the most sought after tours in recent history. Despite much criticism from up North (mostly) regarding the name of the tour, it is without question the two best teams on the planet historically.

South Africa and New Zealand have shared seven of the 10 Rugby World Cup's with the Springboks having won four and New Zealand three and when you consider that the Boks have only played in eight of the 10, they have a 50% win rate for the World Cup.

New Zealand, on the other hand, have largely dominated the game since it turned professional in the mid 90s, with dominant records against every other nation, including South Africa.

But we arrive at this tour with a very different situation. South Africa are now the dominant side - back-to-back Rugby World Cup winners, favourites to make it a three-peat in 2027 and they have won five of their last six against New Zealand - the one defeat coming at Eden Park, New Zealand's fortress in 2025.

Here is our full head-to-head breakdown of South Africa vs New Zealand.

What does 2026 tell us?

South Africa will be confident. They have better depth, a far more settled unit, form and home ground advantage. Everything points to the men in green and gold. However, the All Blacks, now under Dave Rennie, are not the same team that got hammered 43-10 in Wellington by South Africa last year.

It is difficult to read current form for various reasons. In the three Nations Championship matches in July, New Zealand narrowly beat an understrength French side, struggled against Italy before running away in the second half, and then put in a strong performance to see off the Irish.

South Africa on the other hand made light work of England and Wales. Scotland gave them a good run but were outgunned in the final quarter of the match.

The Springboks only other match game in their one warm-up game in Argentina, a fixture that was won 17-10. It was a scrappy affair but also featured players such as Eben Etzebeth, Siya Kolisi and Sacha-Feinberg Mngomezulu who had not featured in months.

The All Blacks have had three warm-up games against provincial sides - Stormers, Sharks and Bulls. The Stormers gave as good as they got for much of the match before the All Blacks ran away with it. The Sharks put up little fight in a 54-0 loss while the Bulls had some good moments and tested New Zealand in the final warmup game, despite a heavy defeat in the end.

So, what does that all mean going into the first test? For me, not much, really. But what I will say is that if the All Blacks are to win the series, one feels they must win the first test for the simple reason that they have more minutes under their belt going into that match.

South Africa could be a little sluggish with just one warmup game and much depends on team selection and who Rassie Erasmus decides to go with at Ellis Park.

Dave Rennie also has concerns in his squad with regards to injuries. Will Jordan, the try scoring machine, as yet to feature on tour due to injury, but can he make the first test? And if he does, can Rennie trust him with no game time under his belt on tour?

First Test Key

One cannot help but feel that New Zealand are in a good place currently, although they are far from where Rennie will want them to be. They have some momentum going into the 10bet Ellis Park Test.

The All Blacks have a decent record at Ellis Park as well, so for me, this is a huge game for the tourists. Should they lose that, I can't see them getting back into the series. The Springboks are short on game time and Erasmus will take an ugly win in that first test.

I can see South Africa overturning a 1-0 deficit into an eventual series win - I can't say I'd be that confident for the All Blacks if they go down at Ellis Park.

The second test in Cape Town will be the one where the visitors have their best support before they return to Johannesburg for the final test in South Africa. The Fourth Test will be played in Baltimore, USA.

The Match-Up

Ahead of the first test there has already been mind games in the media, all very civil, unlike the 2021 Lions Tour. But there is more too it than just saying a few things in the media. Rugby Union, perhaps more so than any other sport, relies heavily on referees, and how they interpret not what only goes on during the game, but in the week leading up to a match.

It is no secret that the All Blacks have historically played a fast-paced game, heavily reliant on offloads, creating space and using forwards with good ball skills. South Africa love the physical side of the game, although in recent years they've played a bit more ball-in-hand.

The set piece will always be key, none more so when these two meet. The All Blacks will have to find parity at the scrum, if South Africa get momentum in that facet of play, it could be a very long tour for them.

Both sides have plenty of exciting players in the backline but how they get used will be key to the series outcome. Regardless of what talent there is at the back, though, the team that has the dominant tight-five wins 90% of Test matches - so that is where the real battle is.

Conclusion

Currently these are the best two sides in the world as per the rankings. South Africa are clear favourites but the All Blacks can and never should be written off. This could go either way but if the All Blacks lose the first test, it could get ugly for them, if they win it, this could turn out to be one of the most watchable tours ever - across any sport.

Ellis Park is they key. Let's see what happens.

Ralph is from South Africa and studied Sports Science post school at ETA (Education Teachers Academy) in Cape Town.

He has always had a great passion for sport and this led him into the world of sports journalism, while coaching on the side. Since 2012 Ralph has worked as a journalist and covered many topics from business to sport.

Over the last seven years he has interviewed numerous top rugby and cricket players and coaches in South Africa.

Ralph has been betting on sports for the last ten years. He’s knowledgeable on numerous topics including football, rugby, cricket, tennis and golf.

He supports Manchester United (football), Cheetahs (rugby), Knights (cricket) and has a newly found appreciation for Dominic Thiem on the tennis courts.