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Senegal vs Morocco Predictions - AFCON final to go the distance

john-eastwood
John Eastwood
Editor
Last updated: 16 Jan 2026

The Africa Cup of Nations final sees Senegal taking on Morocco, both known for their strong defensive performances. With only three goals conceded by the two teams combined throughout the tournament, the final is expected to be a low-scoring affair. The game could likely end in a draw after regular time, with extra time potentially deciding the winner. Predictions for the match include under 2.5 goals and a possible draw at full-time. Both teams are in exceptional form, with Senegal unbeaten in 17 of their last 18 matches, while Morocco remains undefeated in their last 23 games.

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John Eastwood 16 Jan 2026
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  • Senegal & Morocco excel in defense; expect a low-scoring match.
  • Both teams have conceded only 3 goals combined this tournament.
  • A draw after 90 minutes is highly likely in this tight final.
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Senegal Morocco
Senegal face Morocco in the 2026 Africa Cup of Nations final (Getty)

Senegal vs Morocco Predictions


Both sides have been excellent in the tournament, particularly defensively. This should be a tense low scoring game, so under 2.5 and 1.5 goals offer real value in a draw after 90 minutes.

  • Senegal are undefeated in 17 of their last 18 matches.
  • Morocco have seen under 2.5 goals in 12 of their last 14 matches against Senegal.
  • Morocco are undefeated in their last 23 matches.

Head to Head


Morocco have won 10 of their 19 matches against Senegal with six draws. Senegal have managed just three victories.

Senegal Form


Senegal’s defence has been a big reason for their success at the Africa Cup of Nations. They conceded once in the group stage, in a 1-1 draw against Congo.

Two 3-0 victories over Botswana and Benin proved their attack can come to the fore. Ibrahim Mbaye came off the bench to wrap up a 3-1 win against Sudan in the Round of 16.

Pape Thiaw’s side had few problems in the quarter-finals, Iliman Ndiaye’s goal enough to earn a 1-0 win over Mali.

The Lions of Teranga completely shut down Egypt in the semis, winning 1-0 in Tangier. Sadio Mane pounced on a loose ball to score in the 78th minute, Senegal ending with 0.33-0.12 xG.

Senegal Predicted Lineup


Senegal (4-3-3) Edouard Mendy; Krepin Diatta, Mamadou Sarr, Moussa Niakhate, El Hadji Malick Diouf; Lamine Camara, Idrissa Gueye, Pape Gueye; Iliman Ndiaye, Nicolas Jackson, Sadio Mane

Kalidou Koulibaly and Habib Diarra are suspended with Mamadou Sarr and Lamine Camara to come into the starting side.

Nicolas Jackson got the start against Egypt and could retain his spot ahead of Cherif Ndiaye and Habib Diallo.

Morocco Form


Morocco have been under pressure as hosts and favourites to win AFCON but taken it in their stride. Like their final opponents, one goal was conceded in the group stage, a 1-1 draw against Mali.

Walid Regragui’s side beat Comoros 2-0 and dominated Zambia, Ayoub El Kaabi scoring twice in a 3-0 victory. Brahim Diaz scored in all three matches and found the net again in a comprehensive 1-0 win over Tanzania.

The Atlas Lions got it done against Cameroon in the quarter-finals, winning 2-0 in Rabat. Diaz scored first and Ismael Saibari wrapping it up as they held their opponents to 0.46 xG.

Morocco kept it tighter against Nigeria in the semi-finals, keeping a fourth successive clean sheet as the clash ended 0-0 after extra time. They held their nerve to win the shootout and reach a third AFCON final.

Morocco Predicted Lineup


Morocco (4-1-4-1) Yassine Bounou; Achraf Hakimi, Nayef Aguerd, Adam Masina, Noussair Mazraoui; Neil El Aynaoui; Brahim Diaz, Bilal El Khannouss, Ismael Saibari, Abdessamad Ezzalzouli; Ayoub El Kaabi

Romain Saiss picked up a hamstring injury against Comoros and hasn’t featured since. Adam Masina will continue partnering Nayef Aguerd in central defence.

Sofyan Amrabat failed to get off the bench against Nigeria but might an option off the bench. Neil El Aynaoui has earned the holding midfield role.

Regragui will resist making changes here despite going to a penalty shootout in the semi-finals.

Verdict

Senegal and Morocco have reached the final on the back of strong defences, both teams combining to concede just three goals.

I don’t see many goals being scored in the final where extra time is a strong possibility.

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john-eastwood
John Eastwood

Sports Editor • 20+ years betting experience

Graduated from the University of Portsmouth in 2008 with a BA in English Literature before completing MA in Journalism. Began his career as a sports journalist in London before moving to the Middle East to work as a sports editor for national media companies in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Favourite Sports: Tennis, Boxing, Golf.


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18 Jan 2026

Senegal v Morocco

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