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Wolfsburg vs Paderborn Bundesliga relegation playoff 1st leg Predictions - Wolfsburg to claim crucial home win

Simon Lewis
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Last updated: 6 minutes ago

Wolfsburg face Paderborn in a crucial Bundesliga relegation/promotion playoff. Despite a challenging season and a long home winless streak, Wolfsburg’s recent uptick in form and Bundesliga experience give them a slight edge. Paderborn, in good away form and scoring in their last ten matches, will fight hard but could come up short. Key absences could impact both sides, but Wolfsburg’s Pejcinovic is tipped to find the net. Expect an entertaining, goal-filled contest with Wolfsburg favored to win.

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  • Wolfsburg finished 16th in the Bundesliga but can avoid relegation by winning their two-legged relegation/promotion playoff final against Paderborn.
  • Paderborn earned their playoff spot by finishing 3rd in 2. Bundesliga.
  • Can Wolfsburg claim a vital home win in the 1st leg of their Bundesliga promotion/relegation playoff clash on 21 May 2026?
Wolfsburg vs St Pauli
Wolfsburg vs St Pauli (Getty Images).
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Wolfsburg vs Paderborn Predictions - Bundesliga relegation/promotion playoff 


Wolfsburg’s form hasn’t been great, but they have turned it around in the last month and having played in the Bundesliga compared to Paderborn’s matches in 2. Bundesliga the home side should be stronger than their visitors. 

  • Wolfsburg lost just one of their last 5 matches in the Bundesliga.
  • Wolfsburg lost 19 of their 34 matches in the season.
  • Wolfsburg had a goal difference of minus-24 in the season.
  • Paderborn won 18 of their 34 matches in 2. Bundesliga.
  • Paderborn finished level on points with 2nd-placed Elversberg in 2. Bundesliga.
  • Paderborn won just one of their last 5 matches in the league.

Head-to-Head


The two teams have met just seven times in the past, with Wolfsburg winning four matches, two matches ending in a draw and Paderborn claiming one win. Wolfsburg have scored nine goals in their last two matches against Paderborn, with the matches ending 4-2 and 5-4 in Wolfsburg’s favour, so we could be in for something of a goal fest. 

Wolfsburg won their first meeting 2-0 back in 2005, but Paderborn have scored in all of their next six meetings.

Wolfsburg Form


Wolfsburg had a 12-match winless run up to mid-April, but picked up two wins, two draws and a defeat in their last five matches. They were goalless in two of those five matches. 

Wolfsburg haven’t won at home in their last eight matches, losing six times and being goalless in three of their last four matches. Dzenan Pejcinovic is their joint-top scorer this season with eight goals, including three in his last six matches, so I’m banking on him being one of the Wolfsburg players to find the net.

Paderborn Form


Paderborn were unbeaten for 10 matches in a row before suffering back-to-back defeats against Schalke and Elversberg. They drew their next match before beating Darmstadt 2-0 away in their last match in the league.

Paderborn have been good on the road in 2. Bundesliga, losing just one of their last seven matches. They have also been scoring regularly in their last 10 matches and haven’t been goalless once in their last 10 matches. 

With so much at stake for them I’m backing them to throw everything at Wolfsburg and to grab a goal, albeit in a losing cause. 

Wolfsburg vs Paderborn Team News & Squads


Wolfsburg will be without suspended midfielder Vinícius Souza after picking up his fifth yellow card of the season. Injuries also rule out Jenson Seelt, Rogério, Cleiton Santos, Maximilian Arnold, Bence Dárdai and Patrick Wimmer, while Kilian Fischer and Jonas Wind could be match fit for the second leg.

Paderborn have relatively few concerns as they push for promotion to the Bundesliga. Defensive midfielder Mika Baur is suspended after collecting his fifth yellow card of the season, while injured duo Raphael Obermair and Marcel Hoffmeier remain sidelined, with both expected to return in time for July’s pre-season training.

Wolfsburg (possible XI): Grabara, Koulierakis, Vavro, Belocian, Mæhle, Eriksen, Gerhardt, Svanberg, Kumbedi, Pejčinović, Daghim.

Paderborn (possible XI): Seimen, Brackelmann, Scheller, F. Götze, Curda, Castañeda, Hansen, Sticker, Bilbija, Müller, Marino.
                

Verdict

I am backing Wolfsburg to win, but with Paderborn to score in the match. I am also backing Dzenan Pejcinovic to top score for Wolfsburg.       
     
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