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Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal Champions League semi-final 1st leg Predictions - Atletico to clinch 1st-leg advantage over Arsenal

Simon Lewis
Editor
Last updated: 2 hours ago

The upcoming UEFA Champions League semi-final between Atletico Madrid and Arsenal promises to be a riveting encounter. Both teams have experienced a dip in form recently; however, Atletico's hard-fought win against Barcelona secured their spot, while Arsenal remains unbeaten in the tournament. Key players to watch include Atletico's Julian Alvarez, fourth on the goals list, and Arsenal’s Gabriel Martinelli, joint eighth. Despite injury concerns for both teams, including Arsenal's Mikel Merino and Atletico's Pablo Barrios, the match is expected to be competitive. Atletico may have the edge with a predicted win, especially if Julian Alvarez exploits Arsenal's defenses.

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  • Atletico Madrid host Arsenal in their Champions League semi-final 1st leg clash.
  • Arsenal beat Atletico 4-0 at home in their group clash in October 2025.
  • Can Atletico Madrid get the upper-hand over Arsenal in their Champions League semi-final 1st leg clash on 29 April?
Atletico Madrid's Nico Gonzalez
Atletico Madrid's Nico Gonzalez (Getty Images).

Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal Predictions


Atletico Madrid have been struggling through a poor patch in form, although they beat out Barcelona to clinch their place in the semi-final. Arsenal have enjoyed an incredible season but have also hit a bad patch of form in the last month.
  • Atletico Madrid have lost 7 of their last 9 matches in all competitions.
  • Atletico Madrid have scored in 13 of their 14 Champions League matches this season.
  • Atletico Madrid’s Julian Alvarez is 4th on the Champions League goals list with 9 goals.
  • Arsenal have won just 2 and lost 4 of their last 7 matches in all competitions.
  • Arsenal have kept 8 clean sheets in their 12 Champions League matches this season.
  • Arsenal’s Gabriel Martinelli is joint 8th on the Champions League goals list with 6 goals.

Head-to-Head


Arsenal have won two and lost one of their five matches against Atletico Madrid, with two matches ending in draws. Arsenal beat Atletico 4-0 at home in their group meeting earlier this season, which was the first time they had met since 2018.

Atletico Madrid Form


Atletico Madrid have won seven and drawn two of their 14 matches in this season’s Champions League. They have lost five matches, scoring 34 goals in total and conceding 26 times. They kept one clean sheet in the season (vs Barcelona) and failed to score in just one match (vs Arsenal).

Atletico enjoyed a six-match winning streak at home through February and March. They then lost three on the bounce, two of which were against Barcelona, before winning their last match 3-2 against Atletico Bilbao.

Arsenal Form


Arsenal are the only team to not lose a match in this season’s Champions League. They have scored 27 goals in their 12 matches in their 2025/26 Champions League campaign, conceding just five goals. They have won 10 of their matches, drawing twice.

After going 14 matches unbeaten from January to March, Arsenal stumbled to four defeats and a draw in their last seven matches, losing the League Cup final to Manchester City and being knocked out of the FA Cup by Southampton. They also lost two matches in the Premier League during that spell which allowed Manchester City to draw level with them at the top of the Premier League.

Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal Team News & Squads


Atletico Madrid will be without the injured Pablo Barrios (hamstring) and Jose Gimenez (muscle). Ademola Lookman (muscle), David Hancko (ankle) and Julian Alvarez are all injury concerns. 

Arsenal have Mikel Merino (foot) and Jurrien Timber (ankle) out injured, while Riccardo Calafiori (knock), Kai Havertz (muscle), Eberechi Eze (muscle) and Martin Zubimendi (ill) missed the last match but might be fit in time to take part in the match.

Atletico Madrid (possible XI): Oblak; Molina, Le Normand, Lenglet, Ruggeri; Simeone, Koke, Cardoso, Gonzalez; Griezmann, Alvarez.

Arsenal (possible XI): Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapie; Odegaard, Zubimendi, Rice; Saka, Gyokeres, Martinelli.

Verdict

I am backing Atletico Madrid to win, with both teams to score. I am also backing Julian Alvarez to score for the hosts.
    
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