Champions League predictions - 5-6 May 2026, semi-finals 2nd leg
In the Champions League semi-final 2nd legs, Arsenal are poised to edge out Atletico Madrid at home, leveraging their strong Emirates record despite injury concerns, while Atletico’s patchy away form may prove costly. The Bayern vs PSG fixture promises goals, with both sides in free-scoring form and PSG taking a 5-4 aggregate lead into Munich. The prediction favours a high-scoring draw, sending PSG through to the final. Arsenal and PSG are backed to meet in the final on 30 May.
- The semi-finals of the UEFA Champions League take place on 5 and 6 May, with the final set for 30 May.
- Arsenal to hold off Atletico Madrid to book their place in the final.
- Bayern Munich and PSG to slug out another goalfest.
Julian Alvarez of Atletico Madrid (Getty Images).
Champions League Predictions, semi-final 2nd leg
Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid
Arsenal have come through a wobbly phase but since losing 2-1 away to Man City in the League the Gunners have won their next two League matches to nil as well as playing out a dramatic 1-1 draw away to Atletico Madrid in the 1st leg of the Champions League semi-final.
While Arsenal have won just four and lost four of their last nine matches, Atletico have lost six of their last 10 matches. Atletico do have the spirit to rise to the big occasion, such as beating Barcelona away in the quarter-final of the Champions League, and they have won two and drawn one of their last three matches. They can also be devastating on attack, so they are a major threat to Arsenal.
On the road, however, Atletico have lost five of their last seven matches while Arsenal have won nine of their last 12 matches at home, losing twice.
Atletico have Barrios and Gonzalez out injured, while Arsenal will be without Merino and Timber, with both Havertz and Odegaard doubts with knee injuries. Atletico have been boosted by the news that Julian Alvarez, Alexander Sorloth, Giuliano Simeone and Jose Gimenez are all in the squad to travel to the Emirates.
Arsenal are a formidable side and they are desperate for a trophy. While Atletico are a major attacking threat, I’m backing Arsenal at home to hold out for a tight win, and they are the runaway favourites with the bookmakers.
Bayern Munich vs PSG
A sensational first leg saw PSG carve Bayern up, taking a 5-2 lead inside 60 minutes, only for a sensational Bayern fightback to leave the tie poised at a thrilling 5-4 to PSG as they head to Fortress Bayern Munich for the deciding second leg.
Both teams have won eight of their last 10 matches, but PSG are unbeaten in their last four matches (W3, D1), while Bayern’s last two matches saw them lose against PSG and then draw 3-3 at home to Heidenheim, who sit 48 points below Bayern in the Bundesliga table.
Bayern have scored a staggering 26 goals in their last seven matches, while PSG have scored 18, so this should be another goal-shattering clash between two thrilling attacking forces. I don’t feel comfortable betting against Bayern at home, but after going winless in their last two matches after the incredible season they’ve had, and judging by the 1st leg it’s hard to tell which of the three possible results we could see.
I’m feeling stronger about PSG winning through to the final (possibly even on penalties), which carries odds at 1.87, but looking at better odds options I’m going to call it a draw. Bayern have lost just once at home this season, so they'll be tough to beat. PSG have won their last six on the road and cracked the Bayern code in the 1st leg, so the sensible bet to back is a high-scoring draw which will see PSG through to the final.
Verdict
Wins for Arsenal and PSG, who I’m backing to meet in the final on 30 May.
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