Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de Minaur Predictions - De Minaur can challenge Alcaraz at Australian Open

John Eastwood

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Last updated: 26 Jan 2026

John Eastwood 26 Jan 2026

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Carlos Alcaraz leads 5-0 in head-to-head against Alex de Minaur.
Alcaraz hasn’t dropped a set at the Australian Open.
De Minaur is riding high on home crowd support and recent wins.

Expired

Carlos Alcaraz has won all five matches against Alex de Minaur (Getty)

Carlos Alcaraz is the favourite here but I think Alex de Minaur can keep it closer than the odds suggest. I am returning to the tiebreak markets in Melbourne and backing the Aussie to clam at least one set.

Di Minaur vs Alcaraz Head to Head
Alcaraz Form
De Minaur Form

Di Minaur vs Alcaraz Head to Head

These two have met five times with Alcaraz winning each time. However, in front of his home fans, De Minaur can challenge the Spaniard.

Alcaraz Form

Carlos Alcaraz won eight titles last year, claiming the French Open and US Open alongside a final defeat at Wimbledon.

The Spaniard started the season with Samuel Lopez as his new coach following the departure of Juan Carlos Ferrero.

Alcaraz hasn’t dropped a set at the Australian Open, starting with victories over Adam Walton, Yannick Hanfmann and Corentin Moutet. He gave Tommy Paul little chance despite the 7-6 6-4 7-5 score, winning 68% of his 2nd serves and saving 1/2 break points.

De Minaur Form

Alex de Minaur won the Washington Open in July and has been improving his ranking ever since. He displayed consistency by reaching the quarter-finals in his previous five tournaments.

The 26-year-old has been playing well at the Australian Open where his serve has been broken just three times. He breezed past Mackenzie McDonald in straight sets before overcoming Hamad Medjedovic 6-7 6-2 6-2 6-1.

De Minaur has taken out two seeds to reach the quarter-finals, getting past Frances Tiafoe 6-3 6-4 7-5 before a commanding 6-4 6-1 6-1 victory over Alexander Bublik in only 92 minutes.

Verdict

Carlos Alcaraz v Alex De Minaur

Alex de Minaur thrashed Alexander Bublik in the fourth round but has an 0-5 record against Carlos Alcaraz. I am backing the home crowd favourite to claim at least one set and take this one over 36.5 games.

Alex de Minaur +2.5

Sets Handicap

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