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England vs New Zealand 1st Test Predictions - Rain likely to spoil Lord’s showcase Test

Simon Lewis
Editor
Last updated: 03 Jun 2026

The first Test between England and New Zealand at Lord's is set to be heavily influenced by rain, increasing the likelihood of a draw. England enters with in-form batsman Joe Root and pacer Josh Tongue, while New Zealand rely on Tom Blundell's recent batting heroics and a strong bowling lineup. Both squads include some fresh faces and returning players from injury. The key prediction is for a rain-marred draw, with Joe Root and Tom Blundell anticipated to shine individually, and Josh Tongue backed to take at least five wickets.

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Simon Lewis 03 Jun 2026
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  • England lost their last Test series 4-1 in Australia from November to January 2026.
  • New Zealand are unbeaten in their last five Tests, but all five were against sides in the bottom half of the Test rankings.
  • New Zealand usually rack up big scores at Lord’s, but the weather forecast suggests that rain will win the Test.
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Joe Root
Joe Root celebrates his century against Australia (Getty Images).

England vs New Zealand 1st Test Predictions


The first Test of the English summer could be heavily interrupted by rain, which will play into England’s struggles at Lord’s against the stronger Test nations. 

  • England’s Joe Root hit 160 off 242 balls in the 5th Test against Australia.
  • England’s Jacob Bethell scored 154 off 365 balls against Australia.
  • England’s Josh Tongue took 3/97 & 3/42 in the 5th Test.
  • New Zealand’s Tom Blundell hit 186 in the Test against Ireland in late May.
  • New Zealand’s Rachin Ravindra hit 15 boundaries in his 121 against Ireland.
  • New Zealand’s Nathan Smith took 6/40 & 2/53 against Ireland.

Head-to-Head


England have won three and lost two of their last five Tests against New Zealand and won their 2024 series 2-1, although New Zealand won the last Test by 423 runs.

England Form


Joe Root has scored 75, 111*, 96, 33, 64 and 44 in his last six innings, while Harry Brook’s last six innings include scores of 100, 26, 40 and 26. Jacob Bethell scored a magnificent century in the last Test against Australia but had a poor IPL season, with a top score of 27 in his last seven innings. 

Josh Tongue has 49 wickets in just nine Tests, including six in the 5th Test against Australia. He has also been in good red ball form, taking 5/124, 4/89 and 2/76 in his last four innings.

New Zealand Form


Tom Blundell’s 186 in the one-off Test against Ireland was preceded by scores of 98*, 96, 35, 25 and 62 in his previous five red-ball innings. Openers Devon Conway and Tom Latham failed to shine in the innings win over Ireland but each scored centuries in both innings against the West Indies in their second-last Test back in December.

Nathan Smith and Blair Tickner each took a five-for against Ireland, with Tickner taking 4/40 in an ODI against Bangladesh two matches earlier. 

Team news


England’s 12-man squad for the 1st Test includes the uncapped duo of Emilio Gay and Sonny Baker. Ollie Robinson has also been selected after not playing in a Test for over two years. Brydon Carse was second in the Ashes wickets list (22 wickets) but will miss the Test as he recovers from a hand injury which caused him to withdraw from the recent IPL. 

England head coach Brendon McCullum was weighing up whether to select Gus Atkinson or Baker, a decision that might boil down to the weather.

"We'll just work out whether we want the extra air speed, if all of a sudden it becomes 35 degrees and flattens out. Or we stick to what's tried and tested at Lord's and remain with more of the type of bowlers that'll extract some movement with some overhead conditions,” said McCullum in a pre-match press conference.

Mitchell Santner has recovered from a shoulder injury and joined New Zealand’s squad for Thursday’s first Test against England at Lord’s, replacing Dean Foxcroft after the Ireland Test win.

England (possible XI): Ben Stokes (c), Gus Atkinson, Shoaib Bashir, Jacob Bethell, Harry Brook, Ben Duckett, Emilio Gay, Ollie Robinson, Joe Root, Jamie Smith, Josh Tongue.

New Zealand (possible XI): Tom Latham (c), Tom Blundell, Devon Conway, Zak Foulkes, Matt Henry, Kyle Jamieson, Daryl Mitchell, Henry Nicholls, Will O'Rourke, Glenn Phillips, Rachin Ravindra, Mitchell Santner, Kane Williamson.

Verdict

The match is predicted to end in a rain-marred draw, with Tom Blundell backed to score over 45 runs.

Joe Root is a good bet to score over 68.5 runs, while Josh Tongue is in good form with the ball and is backed to take five or more wickets in the match.
  
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Simon Lewis

Sports Editor • 20+ years betting experience

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England v New Zealand 1st Test

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