Otago vs Northland Predictions - Northland backed to challenge Otago in crucial NPC contest

Simon Lewis

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Last updated: 03 Sep 2025

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Simon Lewis 03 Sep 2025

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Otago and Northland both have 3 wins, 2 losses.
Otago are favorites with an 8.5-point home handicap.
Back Northland to stay within the margin; Jona Nareki is a try-scorer to watch.

Expired

Otago have won their last 3 matches against Northland.(Getty Images)

Otago vs Northland Predictions

These two sides have identical records this season, so this should be a fascinating watch. However, at home, Otago are favourites with a handicap of 8.5. I am backing Northland to get within that margin.

Otago vs Northland Predictions
Head to Head
Otago Form
Northland Form

Otago have won their last 3 matches against Northland.
Otago have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
Otago’s Jona Nareki has scored 3 tries in his last 5 matches.
Northland have won 3 of their last 5 matches.
Northland lost their last match against Otago by 3 points.

Head to Head

Otago have won four of their last five games against Northland, including the last three in a row. Last season, Otago won 31-28 away from home.

Otago Form

Otago have been impressive this season and look well on course to make the playoffs. They are currently in fourth place with three wins and two defeats through the first five rounds.

The table is, however, quite congested from fourth down to 10th with just three points separating those positions. One slip-up could see a dramatic drop down the table.

Otago beat Southland in round one before going down at home to Hawkes Bay the following week. They backed it up with victory over Wellington and at home to Counties Manukau. Last week, Otago suffered a 31-27 away defeat to Tasman.

Northland Form

Northland are 10th on the table with the exact same record of played five, one three, lost two as Otago. However, they have only picked up one bonus point, thus find themselves three points off their hosts.

This makes it a crucial match for both sides on Friday. Victory either way could mean a huge step towards either making or not making the playoffs. Northland began their season with a 23-3 away loss to Taranaki before beating Southland at home.

That was followed by a home defeat to Tasman, but Northland bounced back, beating Auckland away from home. Last weekend, Northland upset the odds to beat Hawkes Bay 27-22 at home.

Verdict

Otago v Northland

Northland are tipped to get within 8.5 points of Otago. There is also some value in backing Jona Nareki in the try scoring market.

Northland +8.5

Handicap

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