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Southland vs Hawke's Bay Predictions - Hawke's Bay to record fifth straight win of the season

brad-newcomb
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Last updated: 27 Aug 2026

Hawke's Bay enter the NPC clash against Southland as heavy favorites, maintaining a perfect record this season and sitting top of the table with 20 points after four matches. In contrast, Southland have struggled, with just one win and a poor record against Hawke's Bay, losing five of their last six home fixtures to them. The key recommendation is for Hawke's Bay to comfortably cover the -22.5 handicap, given their dominant form and recent head-to-head history. Team lineups and key players for both sides are also detailed.

Brad Newcomb 27 Aug 2026
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  • Hawke's Bay are unbeaten this season and top the NPC table.
  • Southland have lost 4 of their last 5 home games and struggle against Hawke's Bay.
  • Prediction: Hawke's Bay favoured to cover the -24.5 handicap.
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Hawke's Bay
Hawke's Bay have been playing well this season (Getty Images)

Southland vs Hawke's Bay Predictions

Southland have a poor record against Hawke's Bay and have struggled to win this season in the NPC. Hawke's Bay have been in fine form so far and are on a winning streak against Southland.

  • Hawke's Bay have won 4 consecutive fixtures.
  • Hawke's Bay have won 3 of their last 4 away games. 
  • Hawke's Bay have won 3 consecutive matches against Southland.
  • Southland have lost 4 of their last 5 home games.
  • Southland have lost 5 of their last 6 home matches against Hawke's Bay. 

Head to Head


Hawke's Bay have the advantage over Southland, with ten victories to two in 13 meetings in the National Provincial Championship. 

Southland Form


Southland scored two tries and a conversion in the first half against Tasman last weekend, going to into the break with the score level at 12-12. 

Southland struggled in the second half, scoring a solitary try to lose 46-17 at Tasman away from home. 

Before that, the Stags lost their opening National Provincial Championship match of the season 41-14 to Otago at home and 36-35 to Manawatu away before edging Waikato 32-31 at home. 

Southland are 11th in the National Provincial Championship table with seven points after four rounds. 

The Southland Stags have had little success this season, and have struggled to beat Hawke's Bay in their own backyard in recent meetings, losing four of their last five matches. 

Hawke's Bay Form 


Hawke's Bay scored three tries and a conversion in the first half against Manawatu last weekend, going into the break with a 17-12 lead.

However, Hawke's Bay were in fine form in the second half, scoring six converted tries to romp to victory against Manawatu, winning 59-17 at home. 

Before that, the Magpies began their season with a 55-33 away win against Wellington, a 50-19 home victory against Tasman, and a 44-31 away win against Auckland. 

Hawke's Bay are first in the National Provincial Championship standings with 20 points after four matches. 

Hawke's Bay have been on top of their game this season, and have an opportunity to keep their unbeaten record intact when they travel to face Southland, having defeated their opponents three times in a row. 

Team News 


Southland Stags

Nic Shearer, Sam Fischli, and Fletcher Morgan each scored a try against Tasman last weekend.

Mika Muliaina kicked over one conversion in the match. 

Starting XV: Jack Sexton, Shaun Kempton, Sef Fa’agase, Clem Halalo, Alefosio Aho, Louis Leponika, Sean Withy (C), Konrad Toleafoa, Nic Shearer, Mika Muliaina, Michael Manson, Fletcher Morgan, Scott Gregory, Josh Augustine, Glen Vaihu

Replacements: Aukustino Salanoa, Jack Barrett, Darius Fidow, Kasolama Ahokovi, Gregor Rutledge, Jackson Hughan, Takaya Saito, Hayata Taniyama

Hawke's Bay

Hunter Morrison scored a brace against Manawatu last weekend.

Kianu Kereru-Symes, Nic Benn, Darby Lancaster, Joe Apikotoa, Hadlee Hay-Horton, Valentino Taito, and Anaru Paenga-Morgan contributed a try each. 

Harry Godfrey slotted seven conversions in the match. 

Starting XV: Hadlee Hay-Horton, Kianu Kereru-Symes, Joe Apikotoa, Geoff Cridge, Tom Allen, Frank Lochore (C), Cooper Flanders, Tiaki Fabish, Folau Fakatava, Will Cole, Nic Benn, Lukas Ripley, Bailyn Sullivan, Neriah Fomai, Zarn Sullivan

Replacements: Valentino Taito, Clement Castets, Manahi Goulton, Hunter Morrison, Vilive Miramira, Connor McLeod, Anaru Paenga-Morgan, Darby Lancaster

Verdict

Hawke's Bay have been playing excellent rugby this season and are tipped to cover the -22.5 handicap.

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brad-newcomb
Brad Newcomb

Golf Writer • 20+ Years of Experience, Golf Tipping Expert

Brad graduated from the University of South Africa with a Bcom-Management Accounting degree and has a financial background.


His love of sport has seen him venture down the road of researching sporting history for the past several years, specifically boxing, cricket and football.

Other sports of particular interest are golf, tennis, horse racing and motorsports.
 
Additionally, he spends his time researching the military history of his home country of South Africa.

He is an ardent Liverpool supporter and is known to DJ and release music on occasion.

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