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Southland vs Northland Predictions - Northland to see off Southland

Brad Newcomb

Editor

Last updated: 30 Sep 2026

Brad Newcomb 30 Sep 2026

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Northland have 5 wins in last 7 matches and are third in the NPC table.
Southland have lost 5 of their last 6 and sit 13th.
Northland are tipped to cover the -13.5 handicap to secure a home quarter-final.

Expired

Northland have been playing well this season (Getty Images)

Southland have struggled to win their matches in this edition of the NPC. Northland must win to maintain their position in the standings to secure a home quarter-final berth.

Northland have won 5 of their last 7 fixtures.
Northland have won 2 of their last 4 away games against Southland.
Southland have lost 5 of their last 6 games.

Head to Head

Northland have a slight edge over Southland, with seven victories to six, including one draw in 14 meetings in the National Provincial Championship.

Southland Form

The Southland Stags could only score a converted try in the first half against Canterbury last weekend, going into the half-time break trailing 17-7.

Southland added two converted tries to their tally in the second stanza, but it was not enough, losing 34-21 away to Canterbury.

Earlier in their campaign, the Stags lost 41-14 to Otago at home and 36-35 to Manawatu away, beat Waikato 32-31 at home, lost 46-17 away to Tasman, and 47-24 away to Counties Manukau, then beat Bay of Plenty 43-12 at home before losing 55-19 away to Taranaki.

Southland are 13th in the National Provincial Championship standings with 13 points from nine games.

The Southland Stags have not had much success this season, having lost five of their last six matches, and they have suffered five defeats in their previous seven home games.

Northland Form

Northland scored two converted tries in the first half against Counties Manukau at home last weekend to lead 19-5 at the break.

However, the Taniwha could only add a single try to the score in the second half, opening the door for Counties Manukau to come out on top 22-19.

Before that disappointing performance, Northland thumped Manawatu 40-14 at home, lost 34-21 away to Bay of Plenty, and defeated Taranaki 42-0 at home, Canterbury 36-12 away, and Tasman 20-10 at home, and lost 57-42 away to North Harbour before beating Waikato 34-17 at home, and thrashing Wellington 52-28 away.

The Taniwha are third in the National Provincial Championship table with 33 points from nine matches.

Northland will start confidently against Southland, as they have recorded five victories in their last seven games, and must win their final fixture of the regular season to secure a home play-off game.

Team News

Southland Stags

Michael Manson, Sean Withy, and Semisi Tupou Ta'eiloa scored a try each against Canterbury last weekend.

Mika Muliaina slotted two conversions in the match, while Jimmy Taylor kicked over one conversion.

Starting XV: Jack Sexton, Jayden Henderson, Fehulk Latu, William Kirkwood, Ale Aho, Sean Withy (C), Gregor Rutledge, Semisi Tupou Ta’eiloa, Nic Shearer, Mika Muliaima, Denzel Samoa, Fletcher Morgan, Wil Gualter, Michael Manson, Glen Vaihu

Replacements: Shaun Kempton, Jack Barrett, Darius Fidow, Junior Ahokovi, Konrad Toleafoa, Jackson Hughan, Josh Jennings, Josh Augustine

Northland

Sam Nock, James Ramm, and Corey Evans each crossed the try line against Counties Manukau last weekend.

Rivez Reihana landed two conversions in the match.

Starting XV: Esile Fono, James Mullan, Marcel Renata, Josh Goodhue, Allan Craig, Grady Forbes, Lachie Hooper, Simon Parker, Sam Nock, Rivez Reihana (C), Heremaia Murray, Reesjan Pasitoa, Corey Evans, Nathan Salmon, James Ramm

Replacements: Jordan Hutchings, Olly Ryan, Daniel Botha, Darcy Holwell, Heath MacEwan, Josh Benton, Reuben Stewart, Jordan Trainor

Verdict

Southland v Northland

Northland have had a solid NPC season so far and are tipped to cover the -13.5 handicap in the Battle of the Mainland match against Southland.

Northland -13.5

Handicap

@1,91 - 3 Units

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Brad graduated from the University of South Africa with a Bcom-Management Accounting degree and has a financial background.

His love of sport has seen him venture down the road of researching sporting history for the past several years, specifically boxing, cricket and football.

Other sports of particular interest are golf, tennis, horse racing and motorsports.

Additionally, he spends his time researching the military history of his home country of South Africa.

He is an ardent Liverpool supporter and is known to DJ and release music on occasion.