South Africa vs Wales Predictions - Springboks backed against improving Wales

Ralph Staniforth

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Last updated: 3 hours ago

Ralph Staniforth 3 hours ago

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South Africa are heavy favorites but have made major lineup changes.
Wales are showing strong improvement and competitiveness.
Prediction: Wales to keep the margin within +41.5 handicap despite likely South Africa win.

South Africa to keep winning at home (Getty Images)

South Africa vs Wales Predictions

Wales have been very competitive in their last half dozen fixtures and South Africa have made wholesale changes to their side again. I do not think the result is under threat, but I do see Wales getting within the 41.5 handicap margin.

South Africa vs Wales Predictions
Head to Head
South Africa Form
Wales Form
South Africa vs Wales Sarting Lineups

South Africa have won their last 5 matches against Wales.
South Africa have won their last 11 matches.
South Africa are double World Cup winners.
South Africa scored 73 points in their last match against Wales.
Wales have won 3 of their last 4 matches.

Head to Head

South Africa have won their last five matches against Wales. Their last meeting, in November 2025, saw the Springboks win 73-0, but neither side was at full strength on that occasion.

South Africa Form

South Africa are in flying form, proving why they are double World Cup winners and favourites to make it three in a row next year. The Springboks have cruised through their opening two games, beating England 45-21 in round one without breaking much of a sweat.

Prior to England, the South Africans thrashed the Barbarians 80-31. Last week, against Scotland, after making 10 changes to their side, Rassie Erasmus’ side struggled to get going against a very good Scotland side.

Scotland put the Springboks under huge pressure for the first 60 odd minutes but in the end, the quality in the green and gold stood out, winning 42-28.

Wales Form

Wales have certainly improved this year; there is no question about that. They were competitive in the Six Nations, losing narrowly to Scotland and Ireland, and they defeated Italy.

That improvement has continued into the Nations Championship where Wales beat Fiji 39-24 in round one. They also beat the Barbarians 33-31 prior to that.

Last weekend, Wales lost 35-21 away to Argentina, which was another impressive performance despite the result. They will take heart from that, but against the Springboks, if they are not at their very best, things could get ugly.

South Africa vs Wales Sarting Lineups

South Africa: 15 Aphelele Fassi, 14 Jaco Williams, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10 Vusi Moyo, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Paul de Villiers, 5 Ruben van Heerden, 4 Cobus Wiese, 3 Carlu Sadie, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Gerhard Steenekamp

Replacements: 16 Andre-Hugo Venter, 17 Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 18 Wilco Louw, 19 Ben-Jason Dixon, 20 Marco van Staden, 21 Herschel Jantjies, 22 Manie Libbok, 23 Damian Willemse

Wales: 15 Blair Murray, 14 Louis Rees-Zammit, 13 Max Llewellyn, 12 Ben Thomas, 11 Josh Adams, 10 Dan Edwards, 9 Tomos Williams, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Jac Morgan, 6 Alex Mann, 5 Adam Beard, 4 Teddy Williams, 3 Dillon Lewis, 2 Dewi Lake (captain), 1 Rhys Carre.

Replacements: 16 Ryan Elias, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Ben Warren, 19 Freddie Thomas, 20 Tommy Reffell, 21 James Botham, 22 Reuben Morgan-Williams, 23 Joe Hawkins.

Verdict

South Africa v Wales

South Africa are looking as strong as ever but with many changes to their side and a debutant at flyhalf, alongside an improving Welsh outfit, I am backing Wales to get withing the +41.5 handicap.

Wales +41.5

Handicap

@1.91 - 5 Units

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