2023 Rugby World Cup Predictions

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2023 Rugby World Cup Final Predictions - Fourth title on the line for All Blacks and Springboks

Ralph Staniforth

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Last updated: 25 Oct 2023

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Ralph Staniforth 25 Oct 2023

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New Zealand face South Africa in the 2023 Rugby World Cup final on Saturday (21:00 SAST)
Last 10 games between these two rivals have seen 5 wins for the All Blacks, 4 for the Boks & 1 draw
Who will be the first to 4 World Cup titles?

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New Zealand vs South Africa rugby twickenham

Who will win the 2023 Rugby World Cup (Getty Images)

All Blacks vs Springboks Preview

This is perhaps the biggest rivalry in Rugby Union and now they meet in the biggest game of the sport. While New Zealand and South Africa play each other regularly, they have only once met in a World Cup final before. That was back in 1995 when Joes Stransky’s magic drop goal secured an extra time 15-12 win.

All Blacks vs Springboks Preview
Handicap
Team to Score First
Team Scoring First Wins Game
Total Drop Goals

It has been a long time waiting to see these to meet in the final again. Since 1995 both have won two more titles, which puts them on three each. This final will be more than just for the world title in the sport. It will also decide which country is first to win four World Cup titles. At the same time, New Zealand are the only team to defend a World Cup title, if South Africa wins, they will match that feat.

Both sides have shown superb form at times during this World Cup run, but both have also lost a game. Their quarter-final victories over Ireland and France respectively can easily be considered in the top five games of Rugby Union.

The bookies can’t separate them by much with New Zealand slight favourites and a two-point handicap. That is perhaps mainly down to the Springboks’ two very narrow wins in the quarters and semis. But come Saturday, both sides will be going full tilt for the William Webb Ellis trophy.

Below we look at some markets on betway that are available at this point. Once the teams are announced the try-scoring markets will become available.

Handicap

The handicap is set at two points in New Zealand’s favour. Backing South Africa to get within two points the odds are even money which may hold some value considering they have won by one point in their last two games. It’s a bigger risk but to win the Boks are paying 2.30 while New Zealand are priced at 1.76 with betway.

Team to Score First

This is an interesting market for many reasons and the odds are great. For New Zealand to score first you will get odds of 1.80 while South Africa will fetch you 2.00.

While not ideal to the way they play, South Africa have conceded the first points in their last four games. Tonga, Ireland, France and England were all first on the scoreboard against the Springboks. It is also not just at the Rugby World Cup where South Africa have started slowly, they also conceded first in all three Rugby Championship matches this year.

The All Blacks are notoriously fast starters so at 1.80 to be the first team to score they seemingly offer great value.

Team Scoring First Wins Game

This is a very interesting market that also offers some value. The first scoring team to win the match is paying 1.72 while the team scoring first to lose is valued at 2.10.

Should you fancy this game to go much the same as others for South Africa, there could be value here. Despite conceding first in their last four games, South Africa have won three of them.

But one must consider that New Zealand is not the type of team you want to be chasing a game against.

Total Drop Goals

While drop goals have slowly become less and less apparent over the last decade, every World Cup they seem to pop their head out again. While neither South Africa nor New Zealand are known for this tactic in recent years, they are both more than capable of slotting a few.

When they met in the 1995 Rugby World Cup there were three successful drop goals, one of which obviously won it for South Africa.

While Under 0.5 holds little value at 1.25, if the game is very tight after the first 30 minutes, don’t be surprised to see a few attempts from either side. For over 0.5 successful drop goals there is plenty of value at 4.00. This could be worth a small layout – plenty of risk but no shortage of reward.

Once teams are released we will have a look at the various try-scoring markets.

Verdict

New Zealand v South Africa

There are a few viable options in the betting markets for the Rugby World Cup final. I am backing New Zealand to score the first points of the match but for South Africa to win at the end. There is also value is backing more than 0.5 successful drop goals in the game.

New Zealand

Team To Score First

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Team To Score First Wins

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Over 0.5 Drop Goals

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